About a month to the 2015 United Kingdom general elections, I happened to be in the UK visiting friends and ex-colleagues from my alma mater. Every time I turned on the news, the media and political pollsters/ pundits were predicting a tight election a.k.a “hung parliament”.
I asked my “Oyinbo” friends who they were going to vote for. They told me flat out- David Cameron. “Why?” I would ask them but most of them would be reluctant to state their reasons. I do not belong to David Cameron’s fan club but the reason the “Oyinbos” wanted him back was that he tackled head-on issues like immigration which the British people care about so much but don’t voice in public. Cameron won- with a wide margin and the media/pollsters were flat out wrong- oops!
With Donald Trump, it’s the same story all over again. The Political has written him off as a joker. The media has done the same too. In fact, Liberal leaning website- The Huffington Post stated that they would cover Trump under their entertainment section.
However, the only people who matter with respect to USA elections- the American voters seem to like him. Even on Hudffington Post poll, Trump is leading by almost double digits! Why??? The People love him!
He says what’s on the people’s mind (hate him or love him, he tells it as it is). Immigration is a big issue in the USA and just like Cameron did in the UK, he is ready to talk about it and act rather than sidestep like other politicians do.
Another major point is that he is not a career politician – He is rich so he does not need to “sugar-coat” his words or actions to attract financial support for his election campaign (check out Trump making fun of one of his rivals who previously asked him for campaign contributions).
When I started as a Trader/Portfolio manager, one of my mentors told me a simple but true statement-“most times what is regarded as consensus ends up being wrong”. I advise the media and USA/Global Political and Economic elite not to ignore this Tsunami called Donald Trump.
Finally, my predictions-T rump wins republican nomination, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders wins Democratic Nomination and Trump wins at the 2016 USA general election.
Crazy right…..Let’s see in a year’s time!