The average cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice across Nigerian cities dropped by 3.17% in the third quarter of 2025, according to SBM Intelligence National Average Jollof Index.
The report, however, noted that while headline figures suggest slight relief, the real cost of food remains out of reach for most households.
It added that the apparent improvement was largely due to technical changes in how inflation is measured, not actual price drops in markets.
Reason for high prices
SBM Intelligence explained that the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) which changed the reference year from 2009 to 2024 significantly altered the way food inflation is reported.
Under the new system, the year-on-year food inflation rate for July 2025 was 22.74%, compared to 39.53% in July 2024 a 16.79 percentage point difference.However, the firm said this drop does not mean Nigerians are paying less for food.
“A significant technical event influencing the perception of food prices was the implementation of the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, shifting the reference year from 2009 to 2024. As a statistical consequence, the reported year-on-year (YoY) food inflation rate for July 2025 was 22.74%, a substantial 16.79% point decline compared to the pre-rebased rate in July 2024 (39.53%).
While statistically accurate under the new measure, this figure compares against an already hyper-inflated 2024 price baseline, not genuine consumer-level price relief,” the report stated
- According to the report, relying heavily on the technically lowered YoY figure risks creating a policy credibility gap, which may divert critical attention and resources away from tackling the deep structural challenges that maintain the critically high Jollof Index floor price.
Informal taxes along Nigeria’s highways
Beyond statistical adjustments, SBM identified insecurity is the biggest threat to food affordability in Nigeria, noting that the main cost pressures come from informal and security-related levies along major highways.
- As trucks travel through different states, they frequently encounter police, customs, or local task forces demanding undocumented facilitation fees that can range from N5,000 to N20,000 per trip.
- In many volatile regions, traders also pay for private protection. For high-value goods like rice, traders often pay vigilante groups or informal security to accompany their trucks through volatile areas. These escorts cost an additional N10,000 to N50,000 per trip.
The report adds that bad roads continue to worsen the situation, leading to vehicle wear and tear, higher fuel consumption, potential spoilage of perishables like tomatoes, and drivers demanding hazard bonuses.To cope with these challenges, traders have adjusted their pricing model.
“To account for this volatile operational environment, traders structurally embed these costs by adding up to 20-30% to the base cost of the goods when setting prices,” the report stated.
SBM describes this as an unofficial, deeply entrenched tax on commerce, saying it reflects a critical failure of state security to secure transit corridors.
Jellof price variations
The report shows that the jellof continues to move differently across Nigeria’s regions, reflecting how local insecurity and logistics costs shape daily realities.
- In the North West, prices rose overall, with Kano the regional hub hitting N30,950 for a pot of jollof rice. According to the report, the cost and risk of moving goods overwhelm early harvest benefits in the legion.
- The North East saw the sharpest decline, as Bauchi prices fell over 15% from N41,050 to N34,750, thanks to a sharp, localised influx of early harvest yields.
- The North Central recorded a slight moderation in September, but the report warned that the moderation is fragile, being driven by seasonal supply rather than systemic security improvement.
- In the South West, prices dropped modestly, with SBM noting that the region likely benefited marginally from a more stable Naira, curbing the cost of imported inputs.
- The South East remained one of the most expensive regions. In Port Harcourt, the price rose to N33,200, as high cost is domestically driven by poor internal logistics and high operational costs despite being a port city.
- For the South South, prices were relatively stable and high, with SBM attributing this to a reliance on supplies from the volatile North Central states and poor supply chain security.
Recommendations
The report identifies insecurity as the primary obstacle to food affordability in Nigeria and urges policymakers to look beyond the comfort of year-on-year inflation figures. The urgent recommendations are:
- Prioritise the restoration of security in agricultural zones, viewing it as foundational economic infrastructure.
- Declare a state of emergency on key federal roads to reduce logistics costs and dismantle the architecture of extortion (the unofficial checkpoints and illegal escort systems).
