Nigeria’s export earnings hit a record high of N77.4 trillion in 2024, but this headline figure hides a deeper concern: export performance in dollar terms has plunged by nearly 48% over the last decade.
Experts say this reflects a dangerous illusion of growth, driven by currency devaluation and weak institutional capacity.
Nairametrics Research analysis shows that, between 2014 and 2024, Nigeria’s export value in naira terms jumped by 375.09%, rising from N16.3 trillion to N77.44 trillion.
However, in dollar terms, export earnings fell sharply by 47.53%, dropping from $96.09 billion to $50.42 billion—a decline largely driven by an 805.13% depreciation of the naira during the same period.
This stark divergence highlights how currency devaluation has inflated local export values while eroding real dollar earnings. Yet analysts warn that FX volatility is just one part of a deeper structural dysfunction.
Nigeria remains heavily reliant on crude oil, making exports vulnerable to global price shocks and output disruptions. This vulnerability is further worsened by structural constraints such as pipeline vandalism, outdated infrastructure, and stalled upstream projects like Bonga South West-Aparo and Zabazaba-Etan, which compound the challenge.
Non-oil exports have not fared better. Growth is held back by poor logistics, insecurity, a weak industrial base, and inconsistent policy. External shocks like COVID-19 and global commodity volatility have worsened the situation.
Reforms such as exchange rate unification and trade liberalization are steps forward. But without deeper structural changes and targeted investments in agriculture, manufacturing, and mining, experts fear Nigeria will continue to post inflated naira figures while real dollar earnings shrink.
Experts say we are stuck in a crude trap
Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu, notes that the assessment depends on the currency used. “In naira terms, it may appear progressive. But from a USD perspective, we have retrogressed. Crude oil, which made up 92% of exports, was selling at over $100/barrel in 2014 versus $80 today. In naira terms, you could argue there’s been growth, but the USD is the global standard.”
He added that the per capita GDP in dollar terms fell from $3,020 to just $840 over the period, indicating a real decline.
Head of Research at Norrenberg, Samuel Oyekanmi, believes the challenges run deeper. “Nigeria’s export performance over the past decade is best described as stagnant. We’ve remained trapped in crude oil dependence, with 85% of 2024 export earnings still coming from oil and gas.”
Chief Compliance & Risk Officer at Zigma-Alpha Asset Management, Mr Ayegbeni Kanabe, echoed this sentiment, noting that, “The decline in exports is largely due to distortions in the exchange rate and the declining productivity caused by insecurity across the country.”
What drove this retrogressive trend?
Oyekanmi stressed:
“Our inability to meet crude oil quotas due to oil theft and infrastructure decay means we’re not even maximizing our major export commodity.”
Asimiyu added:
“Exchange rate weakness is central, but without strong institutions to enforce reforms — from port management to energy regulation — we’re going nowhere.”
Key drivers of Nigeria’s export decline:
- Crude oil dependence: Still contributes over 90% of export earnings; output constrained by theft and underinvestment.
- Exchange rate distortions: A steep naira depreciation inflated nominal figures but masked real-dollar losses.
- Weak non-oil base: Non-oil exports declined 60.7% in USD despite naira gains.
- Infrastructure Gaps: Power shortages, bad roads, and port congestion hamper productivity and logistics.
- Insecurities: Agricultural and industrial output is suffering, especially in the North.
Structural Realities Behind the Data
- Crude oil exports fell 61.44% in dollar terms—from $70.08 billion in 2014 to $27.02 billion in 2024.
- Non-oil exports declined sharply in dollar terms despite a 250% rise in naira terms.
- Per capita GDP dropped from $3,020 to $840 over the decade.
Are policy reforms enough? Experts say NO
Policy reforms are important, but insufficient on their own – all the experts agree.
Asimiyu said:
“We need more than policy; strengthening institutions is key. Without legal and regulatory accountability, corruption, power sector inefficiency, and seaport congestion will persist.” He stated, “Reforms without institutional strength are cosmetic”.
Kanabe also emphasized:
“Security must improve, and roads must connect rural farmers to urban markets. Otherwise, reforms won’t change much.”
Oyekanmi put it bluntly:
“Reforms must be complemented by sustained structural change. Otherwise, the same problems will keep recycling.”
Strategies for sustainable export growth
- Power sector reform – Reliable electricity for manufacturers and SMEs is foundational for productivity.
- Logistics infrastructure – Roads and rail to connect rural farm zones to urban markets.
- Institutional strengthening – Improve port efficiency, governance, anti-corruption, regulatory enforcement.
- SME financing – development finance and partnerships to support non-oil exporters.
- Diversification – value addition in agriculture and manufacturing, as well as deeper HE penetration into new export markets.
What this means
The data reveals that Nigeria’s export sector has failed to grow meaningfully in dollar terms over the last decade, despite occasional oil price recoveries and diversification efforts.
The large naira export figures are not due to an actual increase in export volume or value, but a reflection of how much the currency has weakened.
This trend raises concerns about Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings capacity, external trade competitiveness, and vulnerability to exchange rate shocks.
Nairametrics’ take
Nigeria’s booming naira export figures are not signs of growth—but symptoms of economic distortion.
The export data underscores the urgent need for Nigeria to pivot away from oil dependence and build a more diversified, competitive export base. This includes reviving agriculture, manufacturing, and mining, all of which are underperforming despite Nigeria’s natural advantages.
A national strategy, built on institutional reform, infrastructure investment, and inclusive policies, is essential to secure sustainable growth.
