The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected a potential shortfall of 23 million barrels per day (bpd) in global oil supply by 2030 if upstream investments fall short of the estimated $17.4 trillion needed to meet future demand.
OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, made this disclosure during the 24th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week Conference and Exhibition on Tuesday in Abuja.
Al Ghais noted that meeting the world’s growing energy needs by 2050 will require sustained and large-scale investment across the oil sector, as outlined in OPEC’s long-term projections.
“The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says its research estimates a huge oil market deficit of 23 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, if investment in the global upstream industry stops.
“OPEC also said that global cumulative oil-related investments of 17.4 trillion dollars are required by 2050 to meet the energy demand.”
It added, “Al Ghais said that to meet the world’s growing need for energy, investment levels in all energies must increase significantly. He said OPEC’s World Oil Outlook saw global primary energy demand growing by 23 per cent between now and 2050.”
He noted that global energy consumption is expected to increase by 23% between now and 2050, driven by factors such as population growth, rapid urbanisation, and economic development.
More insights
Al Ghais stated that the world’s population is projected to rise from 8.2 billion in 2024 to nearly 9.7 billion by 2050, with 1.9 billion people moving to cities, placing more pressure on energy infrastructure but also presenting opportunities to improve energy access.
OPEC estimates that around 675 million people still lack electricity, and 2.3 billion do not have access to clean cooking fuels. OPEC maintains that hydrocarbons will remain critical in addressing global energy poverty.
Despite the shift to cleaner energy, OPEC projects oil will still lead the energy mix at nearly 30% by 2050, with oil and gas together supplying over half of global energy needs.
Al Ghais stressed the importance of developing countries using their natural resources for growth, noting that innovation is driving cleaner, more efficient solutions across the oil and gas value chain.
What you should know
In May 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed an Executive Order introducing performance-based tax incentives for upstream oil operators who meet cost-saving benchmarks set annually by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The initiative aims to lower project costs and attract more investment into the sector.
- Also, Presidential Adviser on Energy, Olu Verheijen, warned that Africa must implement competitive and transparent policies to secure oil investments, noting that upstream capital to Africa is expected to drop from $340 billion (2011–2015) to below $130 billion between 2026 and 2030. This warning aligns with OPEC’s call for increased investment to avoid future global supply disruptions.
