Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won Canada’s 2025 federal elections, defeating the Conservatives to secure a fourth consecutive term, according to Canadian news outlet CTV News.
It remains unclear if the Liberals will form a majority or minority government as final results are still being counted.
Carney, a former central banker with no prior political experience, ran on a platform of economic stability and defending Canadian sovereignty.
His victory was helped by a surge of nationalism following provocative comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and even suggested Canada could become America’s 51st state.
Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, who had led for much of the campaign, lost momentum as Trump’s rhetoric shifted the focus of the election, pushing moderate voters toward Carney.
Voter turnout hit record levels with 7.3 million Canadians voting early, according to CTV News. The Liberals were projected to win 151 of 343 seats, while the Conservatives secured 119.
Final seat counts will determine whether Carney governs with a majority or minority government.
Nationalist Surge Boosts Liberals
The Trump effect was palpable across the Canadian political landscape. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, who had enjoyed a commanding lead for much of the campaign, saw support dwindle rapidly in the final weeks as Trump’s rhetoric triggered a wave of nationalist backlash.
Analysts suggest that moderate and centrist voters, previously apathetic or leaning Conservative, pivoted toward Carney in a bid to defend Canadian autonomy and democratic values.
“This shift in the polls was absolutely without precedent,” said David Coletto, CEO of the polling firm Abacus. “The combination of Trudeau fatigue and Trump aggression created a political opening for Carney that no one saw coming.”
Liberal Revival After Trudeau’s Decline
The result marks a stunning reversal of fortune for the Liberal Party, which until late 2024 was bracing for defeat. Justin Trudeau’s nearly decade-long tenure as prime minister had ended in a cloud of internal party discord, voter apathy, and dwindling approval ratings.
As recently as December 2024, internal Liberal projections forecasted only a possible containment strategy, limiting the Conservatives to a minority win.
“We were dead and buried in December,” said David Lametti, a former Justice Minister in Trudeau’s cabinet. “Now we are going to form a government. We have turned this around thanks to Mark.”
Historic Gamble Pays Off
Carney’s decision to call a snap election just nine days into his premiership was seen as a high-risk gamble that could have ended his political career almost before it began.
Had he lost, Carney would have become the shortest-serving prime minister in Canadian history. Instead, he now stands as the architect of one of the most dramatic political comebacks in Canadian electoral history.
Monday’s high-turnout election—bolstered by a record 7.3 million early voters—also marked a return to two-party dominance. According to preliminary data, the Liberal and Conservative parties together accounted for over 80% of the national vote, signaling a collapse in support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Québécois.
For the Conservatives, the election outcome will likely prompt deep introspection and internal debate. Under Poilievre, the party had spent two years preparing for an election they believed was theirs to lose.
As recently as January, the Tories held a 25-point lead in national polling. That led to evaporating within weeks following President Donald Trump’s trade threats and Carney’s entry into the race.
More insights
- As the final votes are counted and coalition possibilities emerge, Carney’s immediate challenge will be to form a stable government, either as a slim majority or through cross-party support.
- But his longer-term task is to translate nationalist fervor into effective governance and economic resilience, particularly in the face of renewed U.S. protectionism and global economic headwinds.
- Analysts say the 2025 election may be remembered not just as a Liberal comeback but as the moment Canada redefined its identity in response to foreign threats—and found new leadership in a time of uncertainty.
