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America’s midterm election results offer Nigeria a useful perspective, not a verdict on its own political future. As Democrats regained the Senate amid voter dissatisfaction over rising prices, the conflict with Iran, and the broader direction of the American economy, the Associated Press highlighted a reality that transcends national boundaries: even the world’s largest economy is not insulated from the pressures of rising living costs. Global shocks travel, and their impact is felt directly by households.
Nigeria is navigating the same challenging international environment. However, the critical difference is that the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu have equipped the country with stronger tools to withstand external pressures, manage economic shocks, and turn emerging opportunities into measurable national gains.
The October 2026 Nigeria Development Update by the World Bank provides important evidence of this progress. It reports that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent during the corresponding period a year earlier. This improvement was driven largely by the services sector and a stronger contribution from agriculture.
The World Bank projects average growth of approximately 4.4 per cent through 2028, a trajectory expected to outpace population growth and support a gradual reduction in poverty, which has stabilised for the first time since 2019.
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The implications of these figures are particularly significant when viewed against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty.
The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting increase in international oil prices have presented Nigeria with a mixed economic outcome. On one hand, higher energy prices interrupted the disinflationary trend that had seen inflation decline from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent by December of that year. On the other, stronger oil prices boosted export earnings, strengthened the country’s external position and created additional fiscal opportunities.
The current-account surplus rose to approximately $12 billion in the first half of 2026, while external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by August 2026. These developments demonstrate an economy with an improved capacity to absorb external shocks and take advantage of favourable movements in the international oil market.
Equally noteworthy is the improvement in government revenues. Federation revenues increased by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, largely reflecting the impact of exchange-rate reforms, the removal of the petrol subsidy and improvements in revenue administration. State governments, which emerged as the biggest beneficiaries of the increased allocations, responded by raising capital expenditure by 151 per cent in real terms. Much of this spending went into critical sectors, including roads, transportation, agriculture, energy and housing.
These are not merely impressive figures in government balance sheets. They represent the economic consequences of difficult but necessary decisions taken by the Tinubu administration in 2023.
By ending the costly practice of borrowing to finance consumption subsidies and dismantling a multiple exchange-rate system that distorted investment decisions, the administration began addressing structural weaknesses that had constrained Nigeria’s economic potential for years. The reforms were never going to be painless, but they were necessary to create a more transparent, sustainable and productive economic framework.
Indeed, one of the clearest indications of their strategic value is Nigeria’s improved ability to benefit from higher international oil prices. In the past, structural fiscal weaknesses and an inefficient subsidy regime significantly limited the country’s capacity to translate rising crude prices into meaningful national benefits. Today, the improved fiscal and external position offers a better opportunity to capture those gains rather than remain disproportionately exposed to the associated economic pressures.
That is strategic progress, and it should not be understated.
Nevertheless, acknowledging progress must not mean ignoring hardship. Millions of Nigerians continue to contend with the high cost of food, transportation, energy, and business operations. For many households, the benefits of macroeconomic stabilisation have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in their daily lives. Rising global fuel prices have also complicated the inflation outlook and slowed the pace of relief.
No credible assessment of the administration’s economic record should pretend that these difficulties have disappeared. Nor should the government mistake improved macroeconomic indicators for the completion of its assignment.
However, it is equally important to recognise that the same World Bank assessment documenting these pressures acknowledges that the reforms have created fiscal space that was previously unavailable. It also projects that inflation could decline towards 12 per cent by 2028 if the reform trajectory is sustained.
This is where the argument for continuity becomes compelling.
President Tinubu’s first-term economic reforms have laid an important foundation through improved growth, stronger government revenues, better external balances and the stabilisation of poverty levels. The next phase must be about translating these macroeconomic gains into tangible improvements in the living conditions of ordinary Nigerians.
That requires a more deliberate focus on reducing food costs through improved agricultural productivity, efficient transportation and stronger supply chains. It demands that the additional resources now available to state governments translate into better roads, reliable electricity, improved public services and infrastructure that directly enhance economic activity. It also calls for stronger social protection for vulnerable households, a more predictable investment environment and policies that encourage private-sector expansion and sustainable job creation.
Significantly, the World Bank itself identifies the next phase of Nigeria’s economic transformation as one driven by the private sector and enabled by an effective public sector. This places an important responsibility on both federal and state governments to ensure that increased revenues translate into productive investments, better services and wider economic opportunities.
The lesson from America’s midterm elections is instructive. Across political systems and economies, voters ultimately assess governments through the realities of their everyday lives. They want affordable food, decent jobs, economic security and a reasonable prospect of a better future. Macroeconomic statistics may establish the direction of an economy, but improvements in household welfare ultimately determine whether citizens consider that direction worthwhile.
Nigeria must therefore judge its economic journey with both honesty and perspective. The hardship is real, but so is the progress. The reforms have begun to produce measurable results, strengthen the country’s economic resilience and create resources for investments that were previously difficult to finance.
The choice before Nigerians is not simply whether to acknowledge the difficulties of the present, but whether to sustain a reform process that is beginning to address the structural causes of those difficulties and offers a credible pathway to lasting recovery.
Continuity should not be interpreted as a demand for indefinite patience or an excuse for unfulfilled promises. Rather, it is an opportunity to consolidate the gains already achieved, correct existing shortcomings and accelerate the transition from macroeconomic stabilisation to shared prosperity.
President Tinubu’s reforms have begun to change Nigeria’s economic fundamentals. The responsibility now is to ensure that this progress is felt in markets, homes, businesses and communities across the country.
The ultimate test of reform is not merely a stronger economy on paper, but a better life for the people. That is the promise the next phase of the Renewed Hope Agenda must deliver.
Tooki is the Special Adviser to the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress on Media and Information Strategy, and a member of the Media Directorate of the Presidential Campaign Council
