Middle East crude exports return to 98% of pre-war levels as Hormuz flows rise

Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to about 98% of their pre-war levels as more tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz despite persistent security risks across the region.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. disclosed this in a September 29 note by analysts including Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, as the bank assessed the recovery in oil shipments from the region months into the US-Iran conflict.

The recovery in physical crude shipments has, however, not been matched by a return in crude oil prices to their pre-war levels, with Brent crude now trading above $100 per barrel compared with about $72.48 per barrel on February 27, a day before the war began.

Crude shipments reach 98%

JPMorgan estimates that crude oil shipments from the Middle East have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, representing 98% of pre-war levels.

The recovery has been considerably weaker for refined petroleum products, with shipments of products such as diesel and gasoline standing at about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to only 58% of their pre-war volumes.

• “The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” JPMorgan analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, said, describing it as “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war.”

JPMorgan said flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day, driven primarily by Saudi Arabia. The bank warned that the increase in tanker crossings should not be interpreted as an improvement in the security environment, but rather as evidence of the oil industry’s increasing ability to operate despite sustained risks to vessels and energy infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia has also restored about half of the flows through its East-West pipeline following damage to the cross-country conduit earlier in September, while Goldman Sachs separately estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark flows, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with their 2025 average.

Brent retains war premium

The near restoration of Middle Eastern crude shipments has not been enough to return global oil prices to the levels seen before the war.

• Brent crude was trading at $72.48 per barrel on February 27, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $67.02 per barrel before prices surged as the conflict disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and forced producers to shut in some output.
• By mid-March, Brent was trading close to $100 per barrel as markets priced in the scale of supply disruptions and uncertainty over how quickly normal shipments could resume.
• The US Energy Information Administration said Brent averaged $91 per barrel in August, up $7 from July, as Middle Eastern exports remained constrained and production was shut in across parts of the region.
• On September 24, Nairametrics reported that Brent soared to $106 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $94 per barrel.

At the time of this report, Brent was trading at around $103 per barrel and WTI at around $90 per barrel, leaving Brent roughly 40% above its pre-war level.

Nigeria retains import exposure

It remains unclear whether the continued recovery in Middle Eastern oil traffic will eventually translate into a sustained decline in international crude prices and, consequently, lower petrol prices in Nigeria.

Increased supply would ordinarily reduce some pressure on crude prices, but the market continues to price in the possibility of renewed disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil infrastructure.

• Nigeria’s average daily petrol imports fell by 26% to 14.6 million litres in August 2026 from 19.7 million litres per day in July, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
• The regulator’s August factsheet showed that the decline coincided with increased domestic refining activity, particularly from the Dangote Refinery.
• On Monday, September 28, the Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the NMDPRA to “continue to grant” petroleum product import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa in accordance with relevant laws.

Nigeria is less dependent on imported refined petroleum products than it was before the commencement of large-scale domestic production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, but imports remain part of the country’s petrol supply mix, meaning movements in international crude and refined-product prices could continue to affect the downstream petroleum market.