Nigeria’s raw material trade balance swings to a N466.79 billion surplus in H1 2026

Nigeria recorded a N466.79 billion trade surplus in raw materials in the first half of 2026, marking a sharp reversal from the N1.67 trillion deficit posted in the corresponding period of 2025, as export more than doubled while imports declined.

According to Nairametrics Research’s analysis of the Q2 2026 Foreign Trade Statistics report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the shift was driven by raw material exports rising 105.9% year-on-year to N3.84 trillion in H1 2026, while raw material imports fell 4.5% year-on-year to N3.37 trillion over the same period.

The reversal was heavily concentrated in Q2, when raw material exports surged to N2.31 trillion, accounting for about 60% of H1 exports and rising roughly 181% from N819.72 billion in Q2 2025.

This is notable because Nigeria has recorded a raw material trade deficit in every full year since at least 2016, with imports of raw materials consistently exceeding exports by a wide margin.

What the data is saying

Nigeria’s raw material trade balance improved by approximately N2.13 trillion between H1 2025 and H1 2026, swinging from a N1.67 trillion deficit to a N466.79 billion surplus.

• Nigeria’s raw material imports stood at N1.58 trillion in Q1 2026, against exports of N1.53 trillion, leaving the country with a narrow N48.61 billion deficit in the quarter.
• The position reversed in Q2 2026, with raw material exports rising to N2.31 trillion against imports of N1.79 trillion, resulting in a N515.40 billion surplus.
• This represents a quarter-on-quarter improvement of N564.01 billion in the raw material trade balance between Q1 and Q2 2026.

On a year-on-year basis, Q2 2026’s N515.40 billion surplus compares with a N899.63 billion deficit in Q2 2025, when Nigeria imported N1.72 trillion worth of raw materials against exports of N819.72 billion.

The H1 2026 figure represents Nigeria’s first half-year raw material trade surplus in the data reviewed, with Q2 2026 standing out as the first quarter in which raw material exports exceeded imports.

More Insights

The H1 2026 surplus marks a sharp break from Nigeria’s raw material trade performance over the past decade, as the country recorded annual deficits in every year between 2016 and 2025.

• Nigeria’s raw material trade deficit widened from N901.23 billion in 2016 to N1.42 trillion in 2021, before reaching N1.42 trillion in 2022 and widening further to N2.18 trillion in 2023.
• The deficit expanded sharply in 2024 to N4.79 trillion, the largest annual shortfall in the period reviewed, as raw material imports rose to N6.64 trillion, more than three times the N1.85 trillion recorded in exports.
• In 2025, the deficit narrowed to N3.80 trillion, although raw material imports increased further to N7.90 trillion. Exports also rose sharply to N4.10 trillion, up from N1.85 trillion in 2024, reducing the gap between the two sides of the trade.
• Over the decade, raw material exports increased from N44.48 billion in 2016 to N4.10 trillion in 2025, while imports rose from N945.71 billion to N7.90 trillion, showing that both sides of the trade expanded significantly but imports remained consistently higher.
• The long-term data shows that the H1 2026 surplus did not follow a gradual improvement in the raw material trade balance. Instead, it came after years of widening deficits, particularly between 2023 and 2024, before the gap narrowed in 2025 and moved into surplus in the first half of 2026.

Raw material exports in H1 2026 already stood at N3.84 trillion, equivalent to 93.7% of the full-year 2025 export value, while imports at N3.37 trillion represented 42.7% of the previous year’s import value.

The sharp increase in exports, combined with the lower import value, pushed the trade balance from a N3.80 trillion deficit in full-year 2025 to a N466.79 billion surplus in just the first half of 2026.

What you should know

Nigeria’s raw material trade has historically been dominated by imports, with the country recording annual deficits throughout the 2016 to 2025 period.

• Nairametrics previously reported that the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC) called for Nigeria to reduce its reliance on imported raw materials by at least 60% over the next five years.
• The RMRDC called for increased use of locally available raw materials to support Nigeria’s manufacturing sector.
• The H1 2026 surplus therefore comes against a backdrop of efforts to increase domestic production and reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported inputs.

The H1 2026 surplus represents a significant shift in the raw material trade balance, but sustained surpluses in subsequent quarters will be important in determining whether the improvement reflects a broader change in Nigeria’s raw material trade structure.