FMDA projects Nigeria’s liquidity inflows to drop 31% to N2.47 trillion this week

The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected Nigeria’s financial-system liquidity inflows to fall sharply this week to N2.47 trillion, about 30.62% drop from N3.56 trillion the previous week.

The projected decline in liquidity inflows comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) two-day meeting begins today, September 21–22, 2026, for its 307th meeting, with most analysts expecting the apex bank to hold its benchmark rate steady.

In its latest weekly report, the FMDA, which tracks the major sources of liquidity flowing into Nigeria’s banking system each week, stated that OMO maturities alone will account for about 91.8% of this week’s projected total inflow.

What the data is saying:

OMO maturities remain by far the dominant source of expected inflows this week, at N2.27 trillion, though this too is down 25.8%, or N790 billion, from N3.06 trillion previously.

• OMO maturities alone account for about 91.8% of this week’s projected total inflow.
• T-bills maturities are expected to fall the sharpest, down 93.8% to just N28.04 billion from N449.76 billion the previous week.
• FGN bond coupons stand out as the lone bright spot, rising 320.2% to N166.62 billion from N39.65 billion — the largest increase among all inflow sources.

Corporate bond coupons and commercial paper maturities are both projected lower, falling 76.1% and 35.0% respectively.

No inflows are projected from FGN bond maturities, corporate bond maturities, or FAAC disbursements to the federal, state and local governments — unchanged from the previous week.

Despite this week’s projected decline, system liquidity actually improved by 15.97% over the past week, rising to N2.86 trillion from N2.46 trillion, as about N4.45 trillion in inflows entered the financial system — well above the N3.56 trillion initially projected for that week.

More insights: MPC decision looms against a mixed backdrop

The sharp pullback in projected inflows comes just as the MPC prepares to weigh its next policy move, with the CBN having left the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 26.5% at its last three meetings.

• Nigeria’s headline inflation eased for a second consecutive month to 15.39% in August 2026, from 15.43% in July, a trend that would ordinarily build a case for the Committee to consider room to ease.
• However, a sharp rebound in crude oil prices now trading above $100 per barrel for more than a week amid escalating Middle East tensions, has reintroduced exactly the kind of external, supply-side inflation risk that kept the Committee cautious in July.
• Nigeria’s inclusion in J.P. Morgan’s GBI-EM Edge index on September 14, carrying a 7.4% weighting backed by roughly $17.5 billion in eligible FGN bonds, is seen as a genuine medium-term positive for FX inflows and financing costs, though not one the Committee can lean on for this particular meeting.

Domestic bond yields told a mixed story over the past week: the 4-year FGN bond yield fell sharply by 1.73 percentage points to 16.60%, while the 15-year bond jumped 1.60 percentage points to 16.35%, pointing to active duration rebalancing by investors even as the average FGN bond yield eased to 16.48% from 16.59%.

What you should know:

Analysts broadly expect the MPC to retain the 26.5% rate at this week’s meeting, even as some see room for a shift in tone.

At its July 2026 meeting, the CBN held the MPR at 26.5% for the second straight time, with Governor Olayemi Cardoso citing renewed hostilities in the Middle East as justification for maintaining a cautious policy stance.

• FMDA does not see grounds for further tightening of financial system liquidity, pointing to strengthening domestic fundamentals with GDP growth accelerating to 4.43% in Q2, expanding PMI for a third straight month, and improving reserves at 18-year high as strong reasons against further tightening.
• At the same time, the financial inflow trackers rule out an easing option, citing a combination of intensifying election-related liquidity risk and a global backdrop that has turned more hawkish.

With OMO maturities still dominating the liquidity calendar and inflation only beginning to show a continuing downward trend, this week’s MPC decision will offer a fresh signal on whether the CBN is prepared to start broad easing policy — or whether the recent oil-price shock and pre-election liquidity risks will keep the Committee firmly on hold for another cycle.