Nigeria hits OPEC quota again, but oil output still trails budget target

Nigeria maintained compliance with its Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota for the fourth consecutive month in August 2026, as crude oil output recorded a modest increase compared to the previous month.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country produced an average of 1,677,777 barrels of crude oil and condensates per day in August, representing a 0.4% increase from July’s production level.

Excluding condensates, Nigeria’s average crude oil production stood at 1,500,190 barrels per day, meeting the country’s OPEC quota benchmark.

The regulator disclosed the figures in a statement issued on Sunday by its Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, noting that the performance underscores the industry’s ongoing efforts to improve operational efficiency and restore lost production capacity.

What they are saying

NUPRC stated that Nigeria’s daily crude oil and condensate production ranged between 1.64 million barrels per day and 1.71 million barrels per day during the review period.

• A breakdown of production by terminal showed that Bonny Terminal remained the country’s largest producing stream with an average output of 320.04 thousand barrels per day (kbpd), followed closely by Forcados Terminal at 317.40 kbpd.
• Qua Iboe Terminal recorded average production of 171.72 kbpd, while Escravos Terminal posted 131.71 kbpd. Offshore producer Bonga ranked fifth, contributing 92.50 kbpd during the month.
• The commission attributed the slight improvement in output primarily to the resolution of operational challenges associated with the Single Buoy Mooring (SBM) system at the Erha field, which had negatively affected production in the previous month.

According to the regulator, the restoration of normal production and evacuation activities at the asset helped support overall output growth in August.

• “While the increase recorded in August was modest, it reflects the industry’s continued efforts to address operational bottlenecks and restore affected production capacity. Stakeholders remain focused on enhancing asset reliability, improving operational resilience and advancing intervention programs to support sustained production growth in the coming months,” the commission stated.

NUPRC added that production activities across most oil assets remained stable during the period, supported by measures aimed at improving operational efficiency, maintaining infrastructure integrity and minimizing disruptions to crude evacuation.

The commission noted that the August performance highlights the importance of timely intervention, effective asset management and collaboration among industry stakeholders in sustaining and growing Nigeria’s oil production capacity.

Get up to speed

August marks the fourth consecutive month that Nigeria has met its OPEC production quota, reinforcing a recovery trend that began earlier in the year.

• In July, Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.505 million barrels per day from 1.555 million barrels per day recorded in June, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report. Despite the drop, output remained above the country’s 1.5 million barrels per day quota.
• OPEC data showed that Nigeria’s average crude oil production rose to 1.525 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 1.388 million barrels per day in the first quarter.

The country also outperformed several African peers, including Libya, which produced 1.391 million barrels per day in July, and Algeria, which recorded 995,000 barrels per day.

What you should know

While Nigeria has consistently met its OPEC quota in recent months, production remains below the assumptions underpinning the Federal Government’s 2026 budget.

• The 2026 budget is based on an oil production target of 1.84 million barrels per day, including condensates.
• Analysis by Nairametrics shows that Nigeria has remained below this benchmark throughout May, June, July and August 2026, highlighting the gap between actual production levels and the government’s fiscal projections.

Industry stakeholders believe that resolving operational constraints, curbing crude oil theft and accelerating investment in upstream assets will be critical to closing this gap and improving government oil revenues in the months ahead.