OMO maturities surge 31% to N2.94 trillion as weekly liquidity inflows exceed N3 trillion

OMO maturities are projected to surge 30.67% to N2.94 trillion this week, up from N2.25 trillion the previous week, keeping Nigeria’s total estimated financial system inflows above the N3 trillion mark for a second consecutive week.

This is according to the latest liquidity outlook by the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) which estimates total inflows this week at N3.02 trillion, only marginally higher than the N3.01 trillion projected the previous week.

This is against the backdrop of a steady rise in system liquidity that settled at about N4.7 trillion last week after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) executed Primary Market Repayment of N2.49 trillion on September 1, necessitating aggressive mop up of N3.745 trillion through Bonds and Treasury Bills sales on September 1 and 3.

What the data is saying:

The FMDA data, citing multiple sources including CBN, FMDA, FMDQ Securities Exchange and the Debt Management Office (DMO) indicate that while OMO maturities jumped 30.67%, no inflows are expected from FGN bond coupons, FGN bond maturities, corporate bond maturities, or FAAC disbursements.

• OMO maturities: N2.94 trillion, up from N2.25 trillion the previous week, an increase of N690 billion, or 30.67%, and by far the largest single contributor to this week’s inflow.
• Treasury bills maturities: N71.37 billion, down sharply from N734.81 billion, a decline of N663.44 billion, or 90.29%.
• Commercial Paper maturities: N3.42 billion, down from N29.90 billion, a decline of 88.56%.
• Corporate bond coupons: N236.25 million this week, compared with zero recorded in the previous week.

Thus, OMO maturities account for approximately 97.5% of this week’s total estimated inflow, reflecting the extent of aggressive system liquidity sterilization the apex bank has consistently pursued.

More insights:

With Treasury bills maturities falling to just N71.37 billion, well below their typical recent contribution, this week’s liquidity profile is far more concentrated around the OMO maturity wave than in previous weeks, when inflows were more evenly spread across instrument types.

• The surge in OMO maturities follows a week in which system liquidity itself improved significantly by 28.98% to N4.66 trillion, up from N3.61 trillion previously, supported by inflows from OMO and Treasury bills maturities, even as the CBN sterilised N4.72 trillion in two days through OMO Bills auctions in the last days of August.
• The N690 billion jump in OMO maturities will be almost entirely offset by the N663.44 billion collapse in Treasury bills maturities, which explains why total system inflows remained essentially unchanged week-on-week despite the sharp swing beneath the surface.
• This shift reflects the timing of the CBN’s own recent liquidity sterilisation activity. Much of the cash the apex bank mopped up through aggressive OMO sales in late August, including a combined N4.72 trillion drained across four auctions on August 26 and 27 alone.

Part of the Bills is now scheduled to mature and flow back into the banking system this week.

The CBN is scheduled to conduct a N500 billion Treasury bills auction this week, split as N100 billion for the 91-day bill, N100 billion for the 182-day bill, and N300 billion for the 364-day bill, marking the lowest single-auction issuance size recorded across the entire Q3 2026 NTB Issuance Programme.

The comparatively modest size of this week’s Treasury bills offer, against the N2.94 trillion in OMO maturities due to hit the system, suggests the CBN may lean more heavily on fresh OMO sales than Treasury bills to re-absorb this week’s liquidity surge.

What you should know:

With N2.94 trillion in OMO maturities poised to hit the banking system this week, market watchers will be closely tracking whether the CBN responds with fresh, large-scale OMO sales to re-absorb the surge, consistent with the aggressive sterilization pattern seen throughout Q3 2026 or allows liquidity conditions to ease further ahead of the September Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Analysts continue to expect the CBN to begin cutting rates at the coming MPC meeting, and how the apex bank handles this week’s OMO maturity surge, against a comparatively modest N500 billion Treasury bills offer.

The September 2, 2026, NTB auction offered an early signal of how the market is digesting this liquidity backdrop, with the 364-day bill’s stop rate falling to 16.84% from 17.15% previously.

This may offer an early indication of its policy posture heading into the decisive Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting expected to hold this September.