Nigeria’s GDP growth rises to 4.43% in Q2 2026 as agriculture, services expand

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.43% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest growth rate represents a 0.20 percentage-point improvement from a year earlier, pointing to a modest expansion in overall economic activity.

The performance was supported by stronger growth in agriculture and services, while growth in the industrial sector slowed significantly compared with the same period in 2025.

What the report is saying

The report noted that agriculture grew by 4.39% in real terms in Q2 2026, compared with 2.82% in Q2 2025 and 3.15% in Q1 2026.

• The sector expanded by 17.80% quarter-on-quarter and accounted for 26.15% of real GDP during the quarter, slightly below its 26.17% contribution a year earlier but above the 23.16% recorded in Q1 2026.
• The services sector remained the fastest-growing of the three major sectors, expanding by 4.60% year-on-year, compared with 3.94% in Q2 2025.
• Industry, however, recorded slower growth of 3.96%, down sharply from 7.46% in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

In nominal terms, Nigeria’s aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, compared with N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025.

This represents a year-on-year nominal increase of 18.43%, reflecting the combined effect of economic expansion and changes in prices.

The NBS classified the economy into oil and non-oil sectors, with the latter continuing to account for the overwhelming majority of economic activity.

• Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production increased to 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q2 2026, from 1.68 mbpd in Q2 2025 and 1.55 mbpd in Q1 2026.
• The oil sector grew by 7.31% year-on-year in real terms, significantly below the 20.46% recorded in Q2 2025 but higher than the 2.57% growth recorded in Q1 2026.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector expanded by 10.91%.

• Oil contributed 4.16% to real GDP in Q2 2026, up from 4.05% a year earlier and 3.92% in the preceding quarter.
• The non-oil sector grew by 4.31% year-on-year in real terms during Q2 2026, compared with 3.64% in Q2 2025 and 3.94% in Q1 2026.

According to the NBS, growth was driven mainly by agriculture, information and communication, real estate, trade, financial and insurance services, manufacturing and construction.

Get up to speed

Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.

• Global institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s growth trajectory earlier in the year.
• The World Bank has maintained its 4.4 per cent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027.
• The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4% from 3.7% projected in June 2025.
• S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’.

Earlier in April, the International Monetary Fund cut Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1% from an earlier projection of 4.4%, citing mounting global and domestic pressures.

What you should know

Nairametrics earlier reported that Moody’s revised Nigeria’s sovereign outlook to “positive” from “stable”, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves and better-than-expected economic growth as factors improving the country’s ability to withstand external shocks.

• The agency expects Nigeria’s current account surplus to remain sizeable even if oil prices fall materially.
• Higher crude oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict have supported Nigeria’s external position.

Earlier, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) projected that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could deliver a massive oil revenue windfall to Nigeria, potentially reaching as high as N30.2 trillion if the conflict between Iran and Israel becomes prolonged.