Military strikes, cholera outbreak collapse terrorist operations in Northeast – SBM Report

A lethal combination of relentless military kinetic action and a devastating cholera epidemic has triggered a total operational collapse of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Northeast Nigeria.

This is according to the latest weekly Security and Political Economy Report by SBM Intelligence, obtained by Nairametrics.

The weekly intelligence briefing reveals that while precision joint air campaigns systematically dismantled the group’s leadership, a simultaneous waterborne disease outbreak aggressively hollowed out its remaining foot soldiers.

Together, these dual forces have brought insurgent activities in Borno State to a near-total standstill.

What they are saying

According to the report, the initial fracturing of the terror network began in mid-May during a high-stakes, joint US-Nigerian military air operation. A series of precision strikes successfully eliminated several high-profile ISWAP commanders, including the notorious Abubakar Mainok, at their stronghold in Metele.

This tactical decapitation instantly broke the group’s communication, command, and logistics networks. SBM Intelligence data tracks a massive statistical nosedive in insurgent output following the strikes.

• “The joint US and Nigerian campaign opened on 16 May, killed Abubakar Mainok alongside other senior commanders at Metele, and continued with further strikes across the North East in the days that followed, five days before the outbreak window in the period under review. As such, the decline should be seen as strike-driven degradation which the cholera outbreak is compounding rather than causing.”

As the surviving insurgents attempted to regroup in the wilderness without stable bases, a severe cholera outbreak swept through Borno State.

The health crisis—with 83% of all cases concentrated in the densely populated Maiduguri and Jere Local Government Areas (LGAs)—rapidly infiltrated insurgent hideouts.

Deprived of clean water infrastructure and basic logistics by ongoing military pressure, the remaining terrorist units were entirely defenseless against the epidemic. Instead of preparing for tactical offensives, the group’s daily reality has deteriorated into a desperate struggle against biological elimination.

More insights

According to the report, military successes are frequently eroded by weak governance structures, intelligence failures at the community level, and a rapidly expanding kidnap-for-ransom economy worth billions of naira.

One of the report’s key concerns emerged from Kogi State, where the recent abduction of a school principal, a NECO ad hoc staff member, and four students from Government Secondary School in Dekina Local Government Area exposed gaps in both intelligence gathering and crisis communication.

While the state government maintained that the victims were rescued through a coordinated security operation without ransom payments, relatives of those abducted disputed the claim.

• “While the Kogi State Government claims the victims were rescued through a coordinated security operation without paying ransom, the family of one of the victims has strongly disputed this, insisting that the kidnappers were paid a ransom of N1.5 million before their relative was released,” the report stated.

SBM Intelligence noted that although security agencies deployed drone surveillance to track the kidnappers, local informants allegedly alerted the criminals, enabling them to evade capture.

The report warned that schools located in border communities remain highly vulnerable due to the ability of attackers to cross state boundaries and retreat before security forces can respond effectively.

According to SBM Research data, more than 4,400 people have been abducted from schools across Nigeria over the past decade, with over N8 billion paid in ransom.

What you should know

The latest report follows SBM Intelligence’s warning last week that armed groups across Nigeria are increasingly adapting their operations and relocating to new territories in response to military pressure.

The intelligence firm noted that these shifts have contributed to rising cases of kidnapping, mob justice, and illegal oil refining activities across several parts of the country, underscoring the need for more coordinated and intelligence-driven security strategies.