CBN allots N1.19 trillion as investors bid N2.87 trillion for 364-day T-bill

Investors in Nigeria’s Treasury Bills market poured a whopping N2.87 trillion into the 364-day instrument alone at the July 15 primary market auction, more than seven times higher than N400 billion on offer.

While the 91-day and 182-day bills were under-subscribed, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) alloted a total of N1.19 trillion after the auction, according to the result published by apex bank on Wednesday.

The result was remarkably the sharpest polarisation of investor appetite seen in Nigeria’s NTB market this year: institutions are chasing yield at the long end with extraordinary aggression while largely ignoring short-dated paper.

What the data is saying:

The CBN offered a combined N600 billion across three tenors — N100 billion each for the 91-day and 182-day bills, and N400 billion for the 364-day instrument.

Total subscriptions reached N3.034 trillion, translating to a bid-to-offer ratio of 5.06 times.

91-day bill: N100 billion offered

• N94.96 billion in subscriptions — undersubscribed at 0.95 times.
• Allotment: N80.84 billion.
• Stop rate: 16.30%, unchanged from the prior auction.

182-day bill: N100 billion offered

• N68.03 billion in subscriptions — undersubscribed at 0.68 times.
• Allotment: N48.18 billion.
• Stop rate: 16.50%, unchanged.

364-day bill: N400 billion offered

• N2.872 trillion in subscriptions — oversubscribed at 7.18 times.
• Allotment: N1.062 trillion, or 2.65 times the initial offer.
• Stop rate: 17.66%, down 4 basis points from 17.70% at the July 8 auction.

Total allotment across all three tenors came to N1.191 trillion, with the 364-day instrument accounting for N1.062 trillion — approximately 89.2% of the day’s total issuance.

Settlement is scheduled for Thursday, July 16, with maturity dates falling on October 15, 2026 for the 91-day bill; January 14, 2027 for the 182-day bill; and July 15, 2027 for the 364-day instrument.

More insights:

Compared with the secondary market’s last closing yields of 16.35% for the 91-day, 16.75% for the 182-day, and 17.15% for the 364-day bills, the primary market auction cleared at a 5-basis-point discount for the 91-day, a 25-basis-point discount for the 182-day, and a 51-basis-point premium for the one-year instrument.

• That premium on the 364-day bill — clearing above its secondary market rate — is a direct signal of how concentrated and competitive institutional demand at the long end has become.
• The heavy undersubscription of the 91-day and 182-day instruments suggests that at current rates of 16.30% and 16.50%, investors do not find adequate compensation for the short-term duration — particularly with the June 2026 CPI at 15.91% year-on-year, and food inflation still running hotter at 17.52%.
• The 364-day stop rate of 17.66%, by contrast, offers a positive real return of approximately 175 basis points above the June headline inflation print — the clearest and most liquid real return available to institutional investors in Nigeria’s current market.
• The CBN accepted N1.062 trillion on the 364-day bill against an N400 billion offer, effectively allowing the auction to overshoot by N662 billion on that tenor alone.
• This is a pattern similar to the June 17 auction where the CBN allotted N1.49 trillion against a N1 trillion offer.
• At the July 8 auction, it accepted N1.06 trillion against N700 billion offered.

The repeated willingness to overshoot targets reflects the CBN’s dual objective: financing the government’s N29.2 trillion fiscal deficit while simultaneously sterilising excess banking system liquidity under its Q3 2026 programme targeting N5.8 trillion in gross NTB issuance between July and September.

What you should know:

Wednesday’s auction is the second of three scheduled NTB issuances in July 2026. On July 29, the CBN is expected to offer a further N700 billion, with no major maturities due that day — implying another net withdrawal of funds from the banking system.

• Across the full month of July, the CBN plans to sell N2 trillion in Treasury Bills against only N647.79 billion in bills maturing, making July 2026 the largest planned monthly net T-bill withdrawal of the year
• The marginal easing of 4 basis points on the 364-day stop rate, coming the same day as a softer June CPI print of 15.91%, may signal the beginning of a very gradual downward drift in NTB yields.

Research analysts at Cowry Asset Management expect a first CBN rate cut at the September MPC meeting, and if this materialises T-bill stop rates will likely adjust downward swiftly — making current yield levels potentially the last opportunity to lock in yield above 17% on the one-year instrument