AI will require $5 trillion in annual investment by 2040 – SoftBank CEO

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son has said artificial intelligence will require annual investment of $5 trillion by 2040, dismissing growing concerns about an AI bubble as “absurd”.

He also projected a future in which AI agents outnumber humans and supersede them as the dominant decision-making entities on earth.

According to a report by Reuters, Son made the remarks on Tuesday at SoftBank’s annual corporate conference in Tokyo.

He outlined a sweeping vision of AI’s trajectory over the next 15 years that included predictions about energy infrastructure, economic scale and the fundamental restructuring of human society.

What Son is saying

Son said the scale of investment required to build out AI infrastructure over the coming decade and a half will dwarf anything the technology industry has seen before, and that the economic returns will more than justify the cost.

• “Every year $5 trillion, or 800 trillion yen, you might think that’s a lie, but I am confident that’s what it will cost,” he said, though he did not explain the methodology behind the figure.

He argued the economics of AI investment are sound when viewed against the technology’s projected contribution to the global economy.

• “The business model will be viable because by 2040, if AI revenue makes up 20% of global GDP, spending 800 trillion yen a year is a rounding error,” he said, according to Reuters.

On the bubble question, Son was emphatic about it being absurd.

• “Asking if AI is a bubble is absurd. I don’t think people who ask that question know what AI is about,” he said.

More insights

Son also predicted AI data centres will require power generation of 3 terawatts by 2040, equivalent to 1.8 times total current global power consumption, with gas serving as the primary energy source initially before nuclear fusion becomes dominant.

• “Will we use solar power in space as Elon Musk says? Maybe we will use both, but if you ask me fusion on earth will be the cheaper, cleaner energy source,” he said.

On the long-term societal implications of AI, Son did not soften his language.

• “We will go from a human-centric world to an agent-centric world. The age when humans are the highest life form on earth will end. For better or for worse, it will happen and it can’t be stopped,” he said.
• He outlined a vision of 2040 in which 100 trillion AI agents make their own decisions, take autonomous action and communicate with each other independently of human instruction.

AI firms have soared in value while capital expenditure on underlying infrastructure has ballooned, sparking widespread debate about whether the industry will generate sufficient returns to justify the scale of investment currently flowing in, a concern Son dismissed in his remarks.

What you should know

Son’s bullish outlook comes as governments and international organisations are intensifying efforts to establish guardrails for artificial intelligence, amid concerns that the technology’s rapid evolution is outpacing existing regulatory frameworks.

• Nairametrics earlier reported that the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warned that artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing at a pace that regulators can’t keep up with.
• Guterres said AI’s rapid advancement outstrips the ability of governments, regulators, and even developers to manage its risks.
• He gave the warning while speaking at the inaugural government-level UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance in Geneva.

He called for coordinated global rules to ensure the technology is used safely and responsibly.