The anticipated listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the accelerating deployment of political capital ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 election cycle are, according to leading analysts, the defining variables that will determine where the NGX All-Share Index goes from here.

This is according to leading market analysts and investment advisers, who spoke to Nairametrics on the outlook for the remainder of the year.

Coming off one of its strongest first-half performances in recent history, with the ASI surging more than 54.71% year-to-date and briefly touching an all-time high of 252,508 points in May 2026, the Nigerian equities market entered a sharp correction in June that erased more than N15 trillion in market capitalisation and pulled the benchmark index to 235,941 points by June 19.

Whether that correction deepens or reverses through Q3 and Q4 will depend, analysts say, less on corporate fundamentals — which remain broadly strong — and more on how these two structural forces play out. Nairametrics spoke with leading market analysts and investment advisers to assess the outlook for the remainder of the year.

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What the analysts are saying:

Mr. Charles Fakrogha, CEO, ECL Asset Management Limited, described H1 as a period of exceptional returns that exceeded the expectations of all stakeholders, while counselling measured optimism for the months ahead.

  • “We all started the year with a positive mindset, and it worked for us. We saw year-to-date returns increasing, and investors were smiling at the bank. But looking forward to H2, I see the market rebounding — and I do begin to see Q2 results coming out in late July affecting the market positively.”
  • On sectors, he was direct: “Oil and gas did well, the telecom sector and the banking sector made an impact for me, and I still have a positive outlook for them. But capital will also flow to consumer goods, industrials, and the agricultural sector. Food security is going to be very, very key — the likes of Presco and Okomu Oil have a lot of prospects.”

Fakrogha also raised a pointed caution about the NGX’s T+1 settlement transition:

  • “Operators are really complaining at the back end. There are infrastructural issues which I believe cannot be sorted out overnight. We still need to automate our processes so that they become seamless.”
  • He urged regulators to carry all stakeholders along before rolling out further reforms: “The ecosystem must understand the philosophy behind these policies so that the impact is not felt that much.”

Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research, GTI Securities, offered deeper insight and outlook, anchoring his analysis in a detailed study of pre-election year market behaviour across three previous cycles — 2014, 2019, and 2022.

  • “My first interpretation of the H2 2026 outlook is in the context of the pre-election year we are currently in. In pre-election years, the stock market tends to be strong from January to May, and then we start seeing some weakening from June. That decline tends to be very strong in August and September — in fact, in the pre-election years we analysed, the ASI was actually negative in both months.”

He identified four defining characteristics of second-half pre-election dynamics: equity market weakness, rising fixed income yields, rotation from equities into fixed income, and naira depreciation pressure as politicians convert naira holdings to fund campaign spending.

  • “Why should I take an equity position for a 20 to 25% return when I can get almost 20% in the fixed income market right now — especially the 364-day bill yielding about 21%? Less volatility, less risk, less uncertainty.”
  • On political capital flows, he was frank: “I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that some politically connected investors are retiring funds from the market ahead of election campaigns. We have seen this pattern play out consistently in previous pre-election cycles.”

Despite near-term headwinds, Ogunniyi’s message to investors was emphatically opportunistic:

  • “For people already in the markets, it might be daunting to see portfolios coming down. But for people on the sidelines, the second half of the year is going to present a lot of bargain opportunities.
  • “Over the next three to four months, a smart investor will accumulate a lot of these equities — we might not see those prices again. The market might not really be able to rebound until September or October, but that’s exactly when you want to be positioned.”

Chief Blakey Okwudili Ijezie, founder, Okwudili Ijezie & Co. (Chartered Accountants), offered the most direct verdict on H1 and the firmest conviction on H2 catalysts.

  • “The stock market is up between 54% and 55%. The stocks I advised people — some have climbed over 100%, 150%. The likes of Wapco, Fidelity Bank, Zenith, MTN, and GTCO. It can’t be better.”

On the Dangote Refinery IPO — the single most consequential capital market event on the H2 horizon — he was explicit:

  • “The dip I saw in the market in the last 14 days resulted probably from people leaving the equity markets to buy the private placement. When the IPO comes up in September, a lot of people will exit the NGX to buy it. The market will drop — certainly. The law of supply and demand will take its course. But that is the time people like us will go back in.”

He identified three preferred sectors for H2:

  • “Telecommunication — Airtel and MTN, Banking — the FUGAZ names, Cement manufacturing — Dangote Cement, BUA Cement, and Wapco. Anyone who stays in these three sectors keeps making money.”

He added selective interest in upstream oil — specifically Aradel Holdings and Seplat Energy.

  • His broader H2 verdict: “The second half will be better than the first half because companies are performing. But I don’t see an additional 55% increase for the ASI. Q2 results coming out in the third or fourth week of July, and the flood of political campaign spending into the system will also provide support for the market.”

More insights:

Beyond individual sector calls, the structural backdrop for H2 2026 is meaningfully more complex than the first half, with several forces pulling in opposing directions simultaneously.

  • Rising NTB stop rates — with the 364-day bill now yielding about 18.34% at the June 17 auction and OMO bills pricing between 20% and 22% — are creating genuine competition for equity capital, particularly among institutional investors benchmarked to risk-adjusted returns.
  • When fixed income offers yields within striking distance of equity, market returns with materially lower volatility, the case for equity overweighting weakens.
  • The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO is the single most consequential capital market event on the horizon, with the potential to simultaneously draw billions in investment capital away from the secondary market and, if oversubscribed, inject proceeds back into fundamentally strong large-cap names.

Both Ogunniyi and Ijezie noted that the net effect on the broader market remains difficult to predict with precision — the listing could depress existing heavyweight stocks as investors divest to participate, or the oversubscription proceeds could ultimately find their way back into similar-quality tickers.

Pre-election money supply expansion — which the CBN as well as IMF research identifies as accounting for approximately 50% of Nigeria’s inflation problem — could complicate the CBN’s monetary policy calculus and delay anticipated rate cuts, keeping fixed income yields elevated and sustaining competitive pressure on equities through Q3.

Nigeria’s anticipated inclusion in the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index, expected before year-end, remains a remarkable factor that could trigger a surge in foreign portfolio inflows if confirmed, partially offsetting pre-election capital flight pressure and providing a structural floor for blue-chip valuations.

Sector outlook: Where capital is expected to flow

Across all three expert views, consensus emerged around a core set of sectors likely to attract institutional and retail capital in H2.

  • Banking remains a first-choice sector, supported by completed recapitalisation exercises, robust earnings growth, expanding digital revenues, and the certainty that political campaign spending must flow through the banking system.
  • Telecommunications is similarly favoured, with subscriber growth, rising data consumption, and resilient cash flows providing earnings visibility through the political noise.
  • Industrial goods — particularly cement — benefit from infrastructure spending and the government’s push toward cemented road construction.
  • Upstream oil names, specifically Aradel Holdings and Seplat Energy, are cited for production visibility and foreign currency earnings.
  • Agribusiness is the emerging consensus pick, with food security concerns, policy support, and demographic pressures strengthening long-term demand for names like Presco and Okomu Oil Palm.
  • Insurance is the sector; all three analysts explicitly avoided, citing structural illiquidity, thin margins, low public trust, and a regulatory environment that consistently works against retail shareholder interests.

What you should know

The NGX All-Share Index has delivered a year-to-date return of +54.71% as of June 23, 2026 — among the strongest equity market performances globally in 2026 — despite a correction of about 11,765 points from the May all-time high of 252,508 points.

  • The NGX Oil/Gas Index (+111.13%), NGX Industrial Goods Index (+95.79%), and NGX Lotus II (+85.15%) are the three best-performing sectoral indices as at June 19, each delivering returns more than double the benchmark.
  • The NGX Insurance Index at -1.75% year-to-date is the only major sectoral index in negative price-return territory in 2026, and analysts see no material catalyst for a reversal in H2.

Q2 2026 corporate earnings releases, expected from the third or fourth week of July, represent the single most important near-term catalyst for market direction — strong numbers are likely to provide a floor for the correction and potentially trigger a recovery rally ahead of September’s anticipated IPO activity.

The August-September window could present the deepest entry points of the year, before a year-end recovery driven by portfolio rebalancing, improved political clarity, and the resolution of uncertainty around the Dangote refinery listing and FTSE index inclusion.

While H2 is unlikely to replicate the exceptional gains of H1, analysts across the board believe Nigeria’s equities market remains well-positioned to deliver positive returns for disciplined investors focused on quality businesses, earnings visibility, and long-term value creation.