The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has said President Bola Tinubu’s first three years in office were defined by bold reforms that helped stabilise Nigeria’s fragile economy, but have yet to translate into meaningful welfare gains for citizens.
This was contained in a policy brief released on Sunday, assessing the administration’s performance from May 2023 to May 2026.
According to the CPPE, the administration inherited deep macroeconomic, fiscal, and foreign exchange vulnerabilities, which required urgent reforms. However, the group said the next phase of policy implementation must focus on jobs, poverty reduction, productivity, and improved living standards.
What they are saying
In its assessment, CPPE said the Tinubu administration inherited an economy under severe pressure, with major weaknesses in the fiscal and foreign exchange systems. The group noted that the removal of fuel subsidy and exchange rate unification were the two most consequential reforms of the administration.
- “At inception, the FX market suffered acute illiquidity, multiple exchange rates, pervasive arbitrage and declining investor confidence, with net external reserves reportedly below $5 billion,” the brief stated.
- “The removal of fuel subsidy was arguably the most consequential fiscal reform,” CPPE said, noting that it halted a major drain on public finances and created room for a more transparent downstream petroleum sector.
The group also said exchange rate unification “addressed one of the most distortionary features of the Nigerian economy” by improving price discovery and restoring credibility to the foreign exchange framework.
- “Energy prices surged, transportation and logistics costs escalated… The welfare impact was considerable. Real incomes declined, poverty conditions worsened,” CPPE added.
The group said the reforms helped to stop major fiscal leakages, but warned that macroeconomic stability alone would not be enough unless ordinary Nigerians begin to see improvements in incomes, jobs, and living conditions.
Get up to speed
President Tinubu came into office in May 2023 after winning the presidential election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress.
He defeated former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party in what was widely described as a three-horse race.
Shortly after assuming office, the administration removed fuel subsidy and moved to unify the foreign exchange market.
The reforms triggered higher energy prices, exchange rate adjustments, and a sharp rise in the cost of living.
Tinubu has maintained that the difficult measures were necessary to prevent deeper fiscal deterioration and restore investor confidence.
In his third anniversary message, Tinubu said his administration had laid the foundation for economic recovery after inheriting fuel subsidy pressures, exchange-rate distortions, rising debt-service costs, insecurity, and weak public trust in institutions.
More insights
Despite the hardship faced by Nigerians, CPPE said there are signs that the economy is recovering from the severe macroeconomic stress it faced in 2023.
The group cited gross external reserves approaching $50 billion as one of the indicators of improved external sector stability.
It also pointed to eleven consecutive months of disinflation from early 2025 to February 2026.
CPPE highlighted the rally in the Nigerian stock market, noting that the NGX All Share Index rose from about 55,700 points in 2023 to over 254,000 points in 2026.
Market capitalisation also rose from about N30 trillion to more than N160 trillion within the period.
Nigeria’s external reserves rose to $50.45 billion in February 2026, while net foreign exchange reserves increased to $34.80 billion at the end of 2025 from $23.11 billion a year earlier, according to figures reported from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
CPPE said the early gains from macroeconomic reforms must now be converted into broad-based growth that directly improves the welfare of citizens. The group warned that inflation remains elevated and purchasing power is still weak.
It also identified insecurity affecting agriculture, high energy costs, logistics constraints, and weak productivity as challenges limiting the impact of reforms.
CPPE said the country also faces fiscal risks from a public debt stock of N159.3 trillion as of December 2025.
It added that the success of the reform agenda would not be judged only by reserve growth, exchange rate stability, or stock market performance.
According to CPPE, the reform programme will ultimately be assessed by its impact on jobs, incomes, living standards, and the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.
What you should know
Tinubu has argued that his reforms are already producing visible progress across several sectors of the economy.
According to the President, investor confidence is improving, while the Nigerian stock market has recorded significant growth.
He said the All Share Index rose from about 53,000 points in 2023 to about 250,000 points in 2026.
He also said market capitalisation increased from N30 trillion to N160 trillion within the period.
Tinubu highlighted major infrastructure projects, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road, and the East-West Road.
The President said more than 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are currently under construction, reconstruction, or rehabilitation nationwide, as part of efforts to support long-term economic growth.
