Nigeria’s petrol imports dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2026 as local refinery supply climbed to 3.18 billion litres.
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This was according to official data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority analysed by Nairametrics.
Although the NMDPRA data did not directly mention Dangote Refinery, the facility remains the only refinery in Nigeria publicly known to be producing Premium Motor Spirit at a commercial scale during the review period.
What the data shows
The data showed that petrol imports fell to 965.52 million litres in Q1 2026 from an estimated 2.43 billion litres in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a 60.2% year-on-year decline.
At the same time, local refinery supply rose from 1.996 billion litres in Q1 2025 to 3.179 billion litres in Q1 2026, an increase of 59.2%.
- The figures indicate that domestic refineries accounted for about 76.7% of the total petrol supply in Q1 2026, up from 45.2% in Q1 2025.
Analysis by Nairametrics also showed that total PMS supply declined slightly to 4.14 billion litres in Q1 2026 from 4.42 billion litres in Q1 2025, suggesting that the rise in local refining had not completely offset the reduction in imports.
- The 2025 figures were originally provided by the NMDPRA as average daily supply volumes measured in million litres per day in downstream sector fact sheet.
To ensure a proper year-on-year comparison with the 2026 figures, which were already stated as total monthly litres supplied, Nairametrics converted the 2025 average daily figures into monthly totals.
The monthly supply figures were derived by multiplying the average daily supply volume by the number of days in each month.
For instance, January 2025 domestic refinery contribution of 19.1 million litres per day translated into approximately 592.1 million litres for the month, while import contribution of 24.7 million litres daily translated into about 765.7 million litres.
A breakdown of the figures showed that February 2026 recorded the steepest drop in petrol imports.
- Import volumes plunged to 85.1 million litres in February 2026 from an estimated 770 million litres in February 2025, representing an 88.9% year-on-year decline.
- Meanwhile, local refinery supply increased to 824.45 million litres from 694.4 million litres in February 2025.
- This meant domestic refineries supplied more than 90% of Nigeria’s PMS volumes in February 2026.
In March 2026, imports rose slightly to 182.24 million litres but remained far below the 889.7 million litres estimated for March 2025.
Local refinery contribution also increased to 1.11 billion litres in March 2026 from 709.9 million litres in March 2025.
The NMDPRA’s report to the Federation Revenue Reconciliation Committee showed that PMS supply increased by 42.29% month-on-month in March 2026 compared to February 2026.
According to the report, PMS supply rose to 1.294 billion litres in March 2026 from 909.55 million litres in February 2026, while truck-out volumes declined by 7.85% month-on-month to 1.467 billion litres.
What you should know
Dangote Petroleum Refinery earlier confirmed its readiness to take full responsibility for Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply, pledging to deliver 1.5 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) monthly, equivalent to 50 million litres per day, starting in December 2025.
Nairametrics also reported that Nigeria’s domestic fuel supply received a major boost in January 2026 as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered an average of 40.1 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) per day.
The figure was an increase of about 8 million litres per day compared to the 32 million litres recorded in December 2025, signalling a steady ramp-up in local refining capacity.
