As Nigerians look forward to the April inflation figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, seven economists surveyed by Nairametrics point to a cautious outlook, with most forecasts suggesting that price pressures will remain elevated despite recent moderation.
The economists say stubborn cost drivers, including exchange rate volatility, high transport and energy costs, and persistent food supply constraints, are likely to keep inflation sticky in the near term.
The economists highlight the delicate path to price stability in Nigeria.
What they are saying
The founder and managing director of Cowry Assets Management Limited, Johnson Chukwu, stated that he expects a further increase in inflation figures due to an increase in energy prices, which stem from increased transportation fares, as well as other energy inputs.
He said he expects a minimum increase of 20 basis points, which may translate into an inflation increase of between 15.6% and 15.8%.
The chief executive of the Center for the promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, noted that in the light of what is happening in the energy and shipping sectors, it has become a serious cause for inflation.
Yusuf cautioned that fuel prices have risen over the last two months, and shipping costs have also increased.
- “I can’t put exact figures to it now, but I expect April inflation to have a northward movement,” he said.
Also speaking, the chairman of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Moses Igbrude, said that too much money pursuing little value is a perennial problem in Nigeria.
- “The month of April was no different. I therefore expect a moderate upward movement in inflation for April,” Igbrude said.
On his part, Paul Olaleye, an economist at CashLinks, said he anticipates that inflation could either hold steady or inch upward slightly, given the contagion effects of the Middle East war.
He ascribed this to sustained cost pressures on businesses, including energy, rent, and transportation.
- “Nigerian companies are still contending with multiple cost layers. Even when one dynamic improves, others remain difficult, making it hard to pass on any relief to consumers,” he noted, adding that inflation outlooks among businesses also play a part in keeping prices elevated.
More insights
However, the chief executive of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, told this medium that the difference in inflation figures between December 2025 and March 2026 has been negligible, noting that these were due to the current right economic fundamentals.
Teriba said Nigeria’s foreign reserves have grown to the point where they could easily absorb foreign exchange shocks; the stock market had, over the last three months, grown by more than 50% from N99 trillion to N155 trillion, and is poised to double before the end of the year.
He added that the price of fuel, which has become elastic because of the availability of alternative energy sources no longer has a direct impact as a driving force of inflation. He said these signals show that the economy is operating on the right fundamentals.
- “Hence, I expect no significant change in inflation for the month of April,” he said.
On his part, financial economist at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Dr. Felix Echekoba, noted that the rise in petroleum and natural gas prices over the past two months has been impactful on the prices of food, and transportation, which are major drivers of inflation in Nigeria. He said he expects the April inflation figure to reach 16%.
According to a financial economist at Auchi Polytechnic, Zakari Mohammed, April headline inflation could hover around 15.5%–16%, a reflection of continued pressure from food and transport costs, as well as exchange rate instability.
Nigeria’s inflation had already risen to 15.38% in March 2026, reversing months of easing. Mohammed noted that recent increases in fuel prices and supply chain disruptions partially connected to international energy shocks are still feeding into domestic prices, particularly food and logistics.
He said aside from the rise in the prices of energy and food, a steep rise in rent across the country is bound to affect inflation figures for the month of April.
What you should know
Persistent inflation in Nigeria continues to erode Nigerians’ wealth. Even with more than 100% increase in minimum wage on July 18, 2024, inflation over the last 21 months has vitiated any value in the wage increase.
- On paper, due to the government’s decision to make 2024 the base year, inflation has moderated to hover around 15% over the last three months. At 15.38% as of March 2026, Nigeria records the highest rate of inflation in the ECOWAS region.
- Inflation has, over the decades, been the major factor eroding Nigerians’ wealth. Since 1986, after the Structural Adjustment Programme, Nigeria has rarely had single-digit inflation.
- In 1990, inflation dropped to nearly 0.2%. Nigeria’s inflation rate in 2006 was 8.21%. It was 5.41% in 2007.
Apart from those years, Nigeria has experienced consistent inflationary pressure due to structural issues, fiscal challenges, and currency depreciation.
