Nigeria supplied 28.5 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refineries in the first quarter of 2026, falling significantly short of the 61.9 million barrels allocated for the period.
This was disclosed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in its latest data on the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), released on April 5.
While 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries for the quarter under review, producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels.
Yet, neither the allocated volumes nor what producers offered were ultimately delivered to local refiners, which the Commission attributed to pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners.
What the data is saying
Allocation of crude oil to local refineries is in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, which was designed to guarantee feedstock supply to domestic refineries and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
According to the Commission, a total of 61.9 million barrels was earmarked for domestic refining during the quarter, while producers indicated willingness to supply even more, with total offers rising to 68.7 million barrels.
- “However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36–46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter (Q1) 2026,” the statement reads in part.
For this quarter, Q2, NUPRC has allocated 55.1 million barrels, while oil producers have pledged 58.8 million barrels.
More insights
A breakdown of the figures shows persistent gaps between allocation, offers, and actual deliveries across the three months.
- In January, the Commission allocated 22.6 million barrels to local refineries. Producers exceeded this by offering 25.3 million barrels, but only 9.2 million barrels were eventually delivered.
- In February, allocation stood at 20.5 million barrels, while producers offered 19.8 million barrels, slightly below target. Actual supply declined marginally to 9.1 million barrels.
- By March, deliveries improved slightly to 10.1 million barrels. This was against an allocation of 18.8 million barrels and producer offers of 23.6 million barrels, reflecting a significant surplus in offers but continued shortfall in actual supply.
The Commission attributed the persistent gap between volumes offered and delivered largely to pricing disagreements between producers and domestic refiners, noting that transactions are guided by a “willing buyer, willing seller” framework.
What you should know
The supply shortfall comes against a backdrop of fluctuating crude oil production during the quarter.
- Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, before dropping to about 1.31 million bpd in February, and later recovering to 1.38 million bpd in March, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
- In late March, Nairametrics reported that Nigeria recorded a crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in the first two months of 2026, highlighting a significant gap between actual output and government projections.
In that period, Nigeria produced a combined total of about 92 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, falling short of the projected 108.6 million barrels expected under the Federal Government’s 2026 production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
