Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have declined to $48.6 billion as of April 16, 2026, marking a cumulative drop of about $1.38 billion over a five-week period.
This is according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Data published on the apex bank’s website shows that reserves stood at $50.03 billion as of March 11, 2026, before declining to $48.65 billion by April 16.
While the CBN is yet to explain the reason for the drop, historical trends indicate a steady drawdown rather than a sharp drop.
What the data is saying
The latest figures indicate a gradual but consistent decline in reserves over several weeks, pointing to persistent outflows or interventions in the FX market.
- Daily data shows a steady reduction, with reserves dropping from $49.18 billion on April 1 to $48.72 billion by April 13, and further to $48.65 billion by April 16.
- The pattern reflects a controlled drawdown rather than abrupt depletion, suggesting measured interventions or external obligations.
The data highlights ongoing pressures on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves despite earlier gains recorded at the start of the year.
Get up to speed
Nigeria’s external reserves have historically exhibited volatility, largely influenced by global oil prices, capital flows, and domestic monetary policy actions.
- In January 2026, reserves rose by about $509 million within the first 22 days, signalling improved inflows and stronger FX conditions at the time.
- The current decline represents a reversal of that earlier upward trend, underscoring the cyclical nature of reserve movements.
- A similar pattern was observed in October 2018, when reserves dropped by $1.1 billion within two weeks, highlighting how quickly external buffers can fluctuate.
Fitch Ratings recently projected that Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves will decline to $47 billion by the end of 2026, despite ongoing reforms aimed at stabilising the economy.
These historical movements reinforce the sensitivity of Nigeria’s reserves to both global market dynamics and domestic economic conditions.
More Insights
Officials and analysts have maintained that the recent decline does not necessarily signal a crisis but reflects normal market adjustments and evolving FX dynamics.
- Olayemi Cardoso stated that the FX market has become more market-driven, with increased liquidity and reduced reliance on central bank interventions.
- He noted that the market now records an average daily turnover of about $500 million, often without direct intervention from the CBN.
- Cardoso also emphasised that reserve fluctuations are normal and that Nigeria’s reserves remain above the minimum threshold recommended by the International Monetary Fund.
- “It’s normal. Honestly, there is nothing to worry about.”
These insights suggest that while reserves are declining, underlying market reforms may be improving liquidity and investor confidence.
What you should know
Despite the recent dip, projections and policy outlooks remain relatively optimistic regarding Nigeria’s external reserves position.
- The CBN has projected that reserves could rise to $51 billion by the end of 2026.
- This projection forms part of a broader macroeconomic stabilisation strategy aimed at strengthening external buffers.
- The target is also linked to efforts to boost investor confidence and improve balance-of-payments resilience.
While the near-term trend shows a decline, the outlook suggests that authorities are focused on rebuilding reserves through sustained reforms and improved inflows.
