Nigeria’s crude oil production could rise to about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030 as the industry gradually recovers from years of underinvestment and regulatory inefficiencies in the upstream oil and gas sector, according to Austin Avuru.
Avuru, a former NNPC geologist and Co-Founder and Pioneer Chief Executive Officer of Platform Petroleum Limited and Seplat Energy Plc, made the projection on Thursday, April 9, 2026, at a high-level upstream oil and gas roundtable convened at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos by Olaniwun Ajayi LP, a full-service commercial law firm in Nigeria.
He said the outlook reflects a prolonged structural downturn driven by a decade-long collapse in investment and output that significantly disrupted production growth, warning that the effects would take years to fully unwind despite a gradual recovery in investment activity.
According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at about 1.38 million barrels per day in March 2026.
What they are saying
Avuru projected that Nigeria’s crude oil production could reach about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, noting that the industry is only just beginning to recover from a prolonged period of weak investment and structural inefficiencies.
He compared the current situation in the oil and gas sector to past disruptions in Nigeria’s banking industry, arguing that delayed regulatory responses contributed significantly to long-term output losses.
- “For almost a 10-year period, between about 2012 and 2022, there was practically no investment in the industry. If you plot the graph, you see investment coming down from $22 billion a year to an average of $5 billion a year in 2022. It coincides exactly with the same graph: production coming down from the high of 2.6 million barrels per day until we touched 900,000 barrels per day,” Avuru said.
- “The industry is just about picking up via investments. But it will take another three years to five years to go back to the levels we’re seeing. Probably tough to go back to 2.6 million barrels, but 2.3 million barrels a day. We’ll start thinking about this in 2030 and post-2030,” he added.
Avuru said the downturn was driven by structural and regulatory inefficiencies that slowed investment, especially during divestments by international oil companies, noting that approval delays worsened the situation as exiting firms cut spending and new operators ramped up slowly, prolonging weak capital inflows and declining output.
More insights
Avuru linked the sector’s challenges to broader issues of execution discipline, governance, and operational efficiency within oil and gas companies, stressing that production recovery depends not only on capital but also on execution quality. He said companies must focus on disciplined planning, clear production targets, and transparent performance tracking to improve outcomes.
- He emphasised the importance of strong leadership structures, noting that weak governance often translates into poor operational performance.
- He highlighted that safety, cost control, and delivery timelines remain critical to sustaining value in the sector.
- He warned that inefficiencies in execution frequently erode the gains expected from upstream investments.
- He added that long-term value creation must balance returns across shareholders, government, staff, and host communities.
He maintained that sustainable profitability in the oil and gas sector must align with broader public interest to ensure long-term stability and growth.
Get up to speed
Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by about 225,000 barrels per day in February following the shutdown of the Bonga Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel for scheduled turnaround maintenance. The shutdown affected one of Nigeria’s largest deepwater production assets at a time when the country is working to stabilise output and boost foreign exchange earnings.
- OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.38 million barrels per day in March 2026 from 1.31 million barrels per day in February.
- Data from secondary sources placed output higher at 1.46 million barrels per day in March, compared to 1.44 million barrels per day in February.
- Nigeria fell short of its 1.5 million barrels per day production quota by about 117,000 barrels per day.
- The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reported production at 1.84 million barrels per day in early April, while NNPC Limited later put output at 1.71 million barrels per day.
Despite the improvements, Nigeria’s output remains below its production target, although the country retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in March.
What you should know
Nigeria is currently pursuing policy and investment initiatives aimed at unlocking new upstream growth, particularly in deepwater assets that have remained stalled for years.
- Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved a targeted fiscal incentive to unlock the Final Investment Decision for the Bonga Southwest Aparo project.
- The project is expected to attract about $20 billion in foreign direct investment.
- It is projected to produce about 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil and deliver significant gas output.
- It is also expected to create over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs.
The Bonga Southwest project is widely seen as a major signal of renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream oil sector, with potential to reshape deepwater investment flows.
