Goldman Sachs has lowered its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Previously, the bank had projected Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices at $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.
The adjustment reflects a reduction in the risk premium and improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the bank said in a note, reported by Reuters.
What the report is saying
Goldman Sachs highlighted both immediate market reactions and ongoing uncertainties in its revised forecast:
- Brent crude prices have dropped over 11% so far this week amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
- Prices rebounded on Thursday as concerns emerged that supply from the Middle East may not fully resume, and doubts persist over the ceasefire’s durability.
- The bank maintained its Q3 forecast at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and its Q4 forecast at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.
- Risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside, given the potential for prolonged disruptions and sustained crude production losses in the Middle East.
Goldman added that in a severe scenario where the ceasefire fails, and Middle East production losses persist at around 2 million barrels per day, Brent could average $115 in Q4.
Get up to speed
Global oil markets have been closely monitoring tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for crude exports.
- The region accounts for a significant share of global oil shipments, making any disruption highly sensitive for international markets.
- U.S.-Iran tensions have previously driven sharp volatility in crude prices, affecting both supply forecasts and investment decisions.
- Market participants continue to weigh the balance between short-term optimism from ceasefire agreements and structural risks in production and logistics.
More Insights
Goldman Sachs also revised its European gas price forecasts, reflecting the broader energy market impact of Middle East developments:
- The bank lowered its second-quarter TTF gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh) from 70 EUR/MWh, assuming gradual normalisation of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz by mid-April.
- If LNG flows are delayed significantly or infrastructure is damaged, prices could exceed 75 EUR/MWh.
The revisions underline the interconnectedness of oil and gas markets, where geopolitical developments in one region can ripple across global energy prices.
What you should know
In March, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for 2026 to $85 per barrel, significantly above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $64.85.
- In late February, Nairametrics reported that Goldman Sachs had already revised its oil outlook, projecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, reflecting tightening inventories and shifting global market dynamics.
- At the time, the bank raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil price estimates by $6, while also adjusting its full-year projections upward.
