Marketers of aviation fuel in Nigeria have warned that airlines may hike ticket prices and cancel more flights as Jet A1 surpasses N2,000 per litre.
This is according to Nairametrics’ interviews with marketers and aviation fuel experts, who say the price surge is more than double pre-conflict levels of N950–N1,000 per litre before the Israel–US–Iran crisis began on February 28.
Consequently, airlines are expected to pass these higher costs onto passengers, affecting both domestic and international travel.
What they are saying
Peter Zira Dia, an aviation fuel expert with over two decades of experience, told Nairametrics that several marketers have struggled to restock over the past three weeks due to rising prices. Even those able to restock may not meet all aircraft requirements on time, increasing the likelihood of delays and cancellations.
Jet fuel accounts for more than 40% of airline operating costs in Nigeria, meaning price spikes directly affect ticketing and flight reliability.
- He said: “There will definitely be an increase in flight tickets. Several aviation fuel marketers will not be able to restock. The ones that are able to restock may not be able to meet all the requirements of all aircraft at the right time. So there may be serious flight delays and flight cancellations.”
Adeyinka Adewole, MD/CEO of Raven Energy Nigeria, said the rising cost burden will ultimately fall on passengers, as airlines adjust ticket prices to reflect higher jet fuel costs.
- “Flight tickets will definitely go up generally, not only in Nigeria, it’s across the world. Because they need to pass the cost to whoever is consuming it,” he said.
Understanding jet fuel pricing
Adewole explained that Nigerian jet fuel prices are largely determined by international indices, particularly the Platts jet fuel price.
- “Before the Israel-US-Iran conflict started on February 28, Platts prices were ranging between $780 and $850 per metric ton. Since the war began, scarcity, hoarding, and limited vessel movements have pushed Platts prices to over $1,600 per metric ton,” he said.
He added that the landing cost is also influenced by the exchange rate of the Nigerian naira to the US dollar, noting that “even with Dangote Refinery operating locally, we buy jet fuel in USD, which means any depreciation in the naira increases costs further.”
Dia explained that international pricing indices, mainly Platts and to a lesser extent Argus, are used to determine jet fuel prices. Platts is the most widely referenced, but its rates are based on Northwest Europe, which does not reflect conditions in Nigeria or the surrounding region.
Dia recommended that these indices adopt benchmarks for local realities, saying:
- “They should come up with pricing, for example offshore Lagos or offshore Lome, that captures the realities on the ground and not use Northwest Europe.”
How marketers are sourcing jet fuel amid supply pressure
A senior industry source close to the management of one of Nigeria’s top Jet A1 marketers, controlling about 10% of the market, told Nairametrics that Dangote Refinery has remained the dominant source of aviation fuel, with over 90% market share, even before the Middle East conflict escalated. The source requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
He said large marketers typically procure jet fuel either via coastal loading or gantry loading, with products transported by truck to airports. Transactions are conducted in U.S. dollars on a cash-and-carry basis.
Adewole confirmed that Raven Energy has sourced from Dangote through gantry loading, while larger marketers access higher volumes through coastal loading and are given priority.
Gantry loading requires a minimum of about 1,000 metric tonnes, which smaller independent marketers increasingly struggle to meet due to rising costs.
Beyond refinery purchases, Raven Energy also sources fuel from domestic storage tanks selling in bulk.
Standards, costs, and airline prioritisation in a constrained market
Industry players told Nairametrics that Nigeria has no domestically developed Jet A1 specifications.
- Operators rely entirely on internationally recognised standards, including ASTM D1655 (Jet A) and UK Defence Standard 91-091 (Jet A1), ensuring international airlines can operate safely in Nigeria.
- Maintaining a compliant infrastructure is costly. A brand-new 45,000-litre aircraft refueller built to the required specifications on a European chassis can cost nearly N1 billion, while used units over 20 years old range from N400 million to N500 million.
- Jet fuel supply in Nigeria has historically been largely conducted on credit, with only a small fraction on cash-and-carry. Due to ongoing supply constraints, marketers increasingly prioritise airlines with strong financial standing and proven repayment records to manage risk exposure.
Industry sources also noted that reduced volumes affect government revenue, as the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria charges a surcharge for every litre of jet fuel sold at airports. Lower sales directly reduce earnings.
Get up to speed
Last week, The Times reported that airlines could face long-haul flight cancellations next month due to anticipated jet fuel shortages.
Industry experts warn that constrained supply could disrupt flights to key international destinations as fuel reserves run low.
The disruption is largely linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for roughly 20% of global oil and significant refined products, limiting global jet fuel availability and putting pressure on domestic and international airlines.
What you should know
The Israel-US-Iran conflict has persisted since February 28, 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz heavily restricted.
- Major marine insurers, including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and American Club, withdrew war risk coverage for vessels in the Gulf and surrounding waters on March 1, 2026.
- The U.S. government has taken steps to mitigate risks, including providing naval escorts and political risk coverage through the U.S. Development Finance Corporation. Despite these measures, the strait remained constrained.
Days ago, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy facilities. Less than 24 hours later, he ordered a five-day suspension of planned airstrikes, citing “very good and productive conversations” aimed at ending three weeks of hostilities.
He said the pause’s continuation would depend on ongoing discussions between the two nations. Iran, however, denied any such talks, calling the claims false.
