Nigeria’s current account surplus declined sharply by 65.52% to $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, down from $4.06 billion recorded in the third quarter (Q3).
This is according to data released on Wednesday by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
It also showed that the country’s overall balance of payments (BOP) surplus fell to $2.67 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $4.6 billion in the preceding quarter.
The development highlights increasing strain on Nigeria’s external sector, driven by declining export earnings and rising import demand, even as some inflows provided limited support.
What the report is saying
The CBN data shows that Nigeria’s current account surplus dropped significantly in Q4 2025, reflecting weakening trade performance and rising external obligations.
The balance of payments also recorded a lower surplus during the period, indicating reduced net inflows into the economy.
- “Provisional balance of payments (BOP) statistics for Q4 2025 show a lower current account surplus of US$1.40 billion, which was significantly lower than the US$4.06 billion and US$4.98 billion recorded in the preceding quarter (Q3 2025 )and corresponding period of 2024, respectively,” the apex bank stated.
The goods account surplus declined by 60.93 per cent to $1.77 billion from $4.53 billion due to weaker export earnings.
Crude oil exports dropped by 20.54 per cent to $6.77 billion, while refined petroleum exports declined by 13.97 per cent to $1.97 billion.
Non-oil imports rose sharply by 24.93 per cent to $8.77 billion, increasing pressure on the trade balance.
Total exports declined to $13.36 billion from $15.31 billion in Q3, while higher imports further narrowed the trade surplus and weakened the overall current account position.
Get up to speed
Nigeria’s external sector has remained heavily dependent on oil exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices and production levels.
Over time, shifts in import demand and foreign investment flows have continued to shape the country’s balance of payments performance.
- The balance of payments reflects all economic transactions between Nigeria and the rest of the world, including trade, investments, and remittances.
- A surplus indicates that foreign exchange inflows exceed outflows, while a decline suggests increasing external pressures.
- In Q4 2025, the primary income account deficit widened by 47.30 per cent to $3.27 billion due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
- The services account improved slightly, with net outflows narrowing to $3.32 billion from $3.95 billion, supported by lower service-related imports.
The secondary income account, largely driven by diaspora remittances, provided some relief as inflows rose to $6.21 billion, helping to cushion the overall external position.
More insights
Key financial and reserve indicators showed mixed performance during the quarter, reflecting both investor sentiment and external buffers available to the economy. While some inflows improved, others weakened, pointing to an uneven recovery in capital movements.
Nigeria recorded a higher net borrowing of $1.96 billion in Q4 2025, up from $0.79 billion in Q3.
- Portfolio investment inflows increased significantly to $5.27 billion from $2.51 billion, indicating renewed foreign interest in Nigerian assets.
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined to $1.11 billion from $1.46 billion, showing weaker long-term investment commitments.
- External reserves rose by 6.97 per cent to $45.75 billion at the end of December 2025 from $42.77 billion in September.
Overall, while stronger remittance inflows, portfolio investments, and rising reserves offered some support, the sharp decline in oil export earnings and rising imports underscore Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to external shocks.
What you should know
Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s Balance of Payments (BoP) surplus fell to $4.23 billion in 2025.
- The report shows external reserves increased to $45.75 billion as of December 2025, up 13.83 per cent year-on-year.
- Nairametrics also reported that Nigeria recorded a balance of payment (BOP) surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, marking a sharp reversal from consecutive deficits posted in the prior two years.
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