OPEC+ has agreed in principle to a slightly larger increase in oil production next month as a conflict sparked by US-Israeli strikes on Iran threatens to push crude prices higher.
Key members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — which had paused a series of hikes during the first quarter — are set to add 206,000 barrels per day, according to Bloomberg sources who asked not to be identified due to the private nature of the talks.
The increase surpasses the monthly increments of 137,000 barrels per day recorded in the fourth quarter and comes amid growing turmoil in the Middle East.
The conflict has reportedly led to the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened regional oil production, and disrupted traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
What the data is saying
The decision on formal output quotas may not fully capture the scope of actions by top OPEC+ nations.
- Several members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, had already begun boosting oil exports last month — a strategy reminiscent of their response to last June’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
- The increase in production is higher than the previous monthly increments of 137,000 barrels per day in Q4 2025.
- The move comes amid geopolitical instability that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route.
The ongoing Gulf crisis has already slowed maritime traffic, potentially affecting the ability of member nations to sustain higher exports.
The outcome highlights the delicate balance OPEC+ must strike between supporting global supply and responding to regional tensions that could disrupt markets.
Get up to speedÂ
OPEC+, which combines the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key allies including Russia, collectively controls a significant share of global oil supply, giving its decisions major influence over prices.
- The bloc had earlier decided to pause planned oil supply increases through the first quarter of 2026, maintaining current production levels amid a global market surplus and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil supplies.
- Previous pauses were intended to stabilise the market while monitoring global demand and geopolitical risks.
- Members have historically adjusted output reactively, often influenced by disruptions in Middle Eastern supply.
Oil output decisions have direct implications for price volatility, revenue, and broader market stability.
What you should knowÂ
Nigeria, an OPEC member, has struggled to meet its production quotas in recent months due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment, limiting its ability to fully benefit even when output caps are raised.
- Oil revenues account for a major share of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
- Global supply decisions by OPEC+ are therefore critical for Nigeria’s budget planning and currency stability.
The latest increase by OPEC+ may offer some relief to oil-dependent economies if regional tensions are managed and exports continue uninterrupted.
