The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has called on the Federal Government to urgently implement targeted measures to shield farmers from the unintended consequences of falling food prices, as Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 15.10% in January 2026.
In a newly released policy brief, the CPPE emphasized that while the moderation in prices is a win for household welfare, it poses a significant threat to rural livelihoods.
The think tank argues that the government must now pivot toward protecting farm incomes to ensure that the current disinflation does not lead to a future production collapse.
What they are saying
The CPPE recommends a multi-pronged approach to sustain food affordability without bankrupting the Nigerian farmer.
This includes the introduction of minimum guaranteed prices for selected crops and the expansion of agro-processing capacity to absorb surplus output that would otherwise rot or be sold at a loss.
- “There is a critical need to balance consumer affordability with producer sustainability to safeguard national food security,” the report stated.
- “Sustained weakness in farm-gate prices may discourage agricultural production, potentially creating future supply shortages and renewed inflation pressures.”
Beyond price floors, the CPPE urged the government to strengthen strategic reserves and provide productivity support to help farmers maintain margins even as market prices cool.
Backstory
The January 2026 figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) mark a stark contrast to the 27.61% headline inflation recorded just one year prior.
Notably, food inflation has plummeted to 8.89% year-on-year, with month-on-month food prices actually turning negative at -6.02%.
According to the CPPE, this shift is geographically widespread, with rural inflation falling to 14.44%, suggesting the emergence of “real disinflation rather than temporary price volatility.”
More insights
While the decline in core inflation (now at 17.72%) provides the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with room for “cautious and gradual monetary easing,” the CPPE warned that the process must remain data-driven.
For the private sector, the report suggests a shift in strategy. With the era of passing high costs to consumers potentially ending, businesses must now prioritize efficiency and scale.
- “Disinflation reduces the ability of firms to rely on price increases for revenue growth, thereby increasing the importance of cost efficiency, productivity, and scale,” the CPPE noted.
The brief concluded that while the current trend signals a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilization, the “central policy priority” must be to protect the agricultural engine of the economy.
By addressing structural constraints like transport costs and security, which keep inflation high in states like Benue and Kogi, the government can transform this temporary price relief into long-term, inclusive growth.
What you should know
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report also showed a contraction in prices compared to the previous month. Inflation stood at –2.88% month on month in January 2026, compared to 0.54% in December 2025, representing a drop of 3.42 percentage points.
According to the NBS, this indicates that the general price level declined in January, meaning the average cost of goods and services fell relative to December.
Despite the recent easing, the broader inflation trend remains elevated. The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 21.97%, compared to the previous twelve-month period.
This represents a 4.37 percentage point increase from the 17.59% recorded in January 2025, showing that underlying price pressures over the past year remain significant.
