The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spent about $7.8 billion in 2025 to manage foreign exchange liquidity and stabilise the naira, according to economists at Stanbic IBTC Asset Management Limited.
The disclosure was made by Mr. Abdulazeez Kuranga while leading a team of investment analysts during Stanbic IBTC Bank’s recent launch of its “Nigeria 2026 Economic Outlook,” webinar on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.
He explained that nearly half of the interventions occurred during a period of heightened exchange rate volatility, as the apex bank intensified dollar sales to calm the market and restore confidence in the liberalised FX framework.
What the analysts are saying
Stanbic IBTC economists say the CBN’s intervention in 2025 played a critical role in stabilising the foreign exchange market after prolonged volatility. They noted that the liquidity injections helped narrow exchange rate disparities and improve overall market confidence.
- “The CBN sold about 7.8 billion dollars to the market last year. 47% of that came between March and May last year, 2025. When you are seeing massive depreciation in the exchange rate, perhaps because of negative sentiments, you see the CBN also selling FX in the market.”
- “The CBN now acts like a regular market participant, with its contribution to FX inflows declining significantly, averaging 12.9% from a peak of 77.9% in March 2020. And since then, we’ve been seeing a much-improved sentiment in this space.”
They added that the interventions were particularly effective because they coincided with stronger FX inflows from oil exports, remittances, and foreign portfolio investments, alongside tighter monetary conditions that supported reserve accretion.
More insights
The analysts disclosed that 47% of the total $7.8 billion FX intervention occurred between March and May 2025, a period marked by sharp depreciation pressures and negative market sentiment. During that window, the CBN intensified dollar sales to smooth volatility in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM).
- The CBN’s average contribution to total FX inflows declined to 12.9%, compared to a peak of 77.9% recorded in March 2020.
- Foreign investors accounted for an average of 39.4% of total FX inflows into NAFEM in 2025, up from 30.8% in 2024.
- FX reserves strengthened to their highest levels since 2018, supported by improved liquidity conditions.
The reduced dominance of the apex bank reflects broader reforms aimed at deepening market liquidity and enhancing price discovery under a more liberalised exchange rate system.
What you should know
Stanbic IBTC economists projected a cautiously optimistic outlook for Nigeria’s economy in 2026, underpinned by FX stability and improving investor confidence. They expect GDP growth to range between 4.1% and 4.4%, with non-oil sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing playing significant roles.
- Inflation is projected to moderate to around 15.4% in 2026, supported by lower fuel prices and exchange rate stability.
- Oil production is expected to grow steadily, though it may not reach 2 million barrels per day until later in the year.
- Foreign exchange reserves are anticipated to remain robust, supported by oil inflows, remittances, and sustained offshore investor participation.
However, the analysts warned that Nigeria’s outlook remains sensitive to external shocks, particularly fluctuations in global oil prices and policy unpredictability from major economies such as the United States, which could influence capital flows and exchange rate stability.
