Bitcoin is targeting the $52,000 price level as technical analysis points to a key support zone backed by on-chain data and historical cycle patterns.
According to crypto analyst Ali Charts, Bitcoin has historically found its bottom around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.
That metric currently sits at $52,040.
The analysis also shows Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle remains intact, with current market behavior matching previous post-halving correction patterns.
What the charts are showing
Ali Charts identified Bitcoin’s current −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band level at $52,040. The cryptocurrency has historically bottomed at this technical threshold. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized cap. That values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain.
- Bitcoin has consistently found support at the −1.0 MVRV band during previous bear market phases. Historical data shows this zone marks extreme undervaluation, where long-term accumulation typically occurs.
- Ali’s second chart confirms Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle remains structurally intact in 2026, following patterns observed in 2022.
- MVRV ratios below 1.0 have historically signaled capitulation phases and strong long-term buying opportunities. Readings above 3.7 typically indicate overheated market conditions.
Bitcoin’s current price action follows established cyclical patterns rather than signaling structural breakdown, according to the technical framework.
Understanding the cycle pattern
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is due to halving events programmed into its blockchain that reduce miner rewards by half every 210,000 blocks. The most recent halving was April 20, 2024, block 840,000, lowering rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
- Bitcoin rallied 526 days after the 2016 halving to its December 2017 peak and experienced a 363-day bear market, reaching its December 2018 lows.
- The 2017-2021 cycle peaked 547 days after the May 2020 halving to November 2021, then corrected for 376 days into November 2022.
- The MVRV Pricing Band segments the valuation into bands. MVRV below 1.0 has only historically 15% of trading days.
The −1.0 MVRV band has consistently marked zones where long-term holders accumulated Bitcoin near cycle lows across previous bear markets.
What this means
The $52,040 level gives investors a quantitative reference point for potential accumulation zones derived from on-chain cost basis data. The intact cycle pattern shows Bitcoin’s current price behavior aligns with historical post-halving corrections rather than fundamental breakdown.
- MVRV band analysis provides context by comparing current prices to previous bear market bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022, when the metric fell below 1.0.
- The framework identifies zones where buying pressure from long-term holders emerged during capitulation phases.
This approach doesn’t guarantee price floors but highlights valuation thresholds that triggered accumulation in past cycles.
What you should know
Bitcoin’s price currently ranges between $65,000 and $70,000 as of February 11, 2026, roughly 31% above the $52,040 MVRV support level Ali Charts identified. In late 2025, BTC went far above $100,000 before entering its current correction.
- Since 2018, the MVRV ratio has been used by analysts to spot overbought conditions (above 3.7) and oversold zones (below 1.0) in Bitcoin markets.
- According to Bybit’s technical indicators, there are 17 sell signals, 6 neutral, and just 1 buy, with all 14 key moving averages flashing sell.
This setup aligns with the trajectory toward the $52,000 mark in Ali Charts’ MVRV analysis.
Cycle analysis and technical indicators both point to increased downside pressure toward the historical support zone.
