Nigeria’s electricity grid struggled with low generation availability and unstable system frequency in January 2026, demonstrating persistent operational weaknesses in the power sector.
The development is detailed in the January 2026 Operational Performance Factsheet released by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) on Monday.
The report highlights a sharp mismatch between installed capacity and usable power, alongside grid stability concerns that continue to threaten reliable electricity supply.
What the report is saying
NERC’s January 2026 factsheet shows that grid-connected power plants operated far below their installed capacity, reflecting ongoing availability challenges across the generation segment. Despite this, most of the power that was available was absorbed by the grid, leaving little operational buffer.
“The grid-connected plants recorded a Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 36% – at any time during the month, an average of 4,901 MW was available for dispatch into the grid,” NERC stated.
“The average lower grid frequency (49.03Hz) and average upper grid frequency (50.66Hz) during the month exceeded the prescribed limits (49.75Hz–50.25Hz),” the commission noted.
According to the report, Nigeria’s total installed generation capacity stood at 13,625 megawatts, but only an average of 4,901 megawatts was available for dispatch during the month, translating to a PAF of 36 per cent.
The Average Load Factor, however, was recorded at 90 per cent, meaning about 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour of available power was dispatched and consumed, pointing to strong demand and limited reserves within the system.
Backstory
Nigeria’s electricity challenges are deeply rooted in years of underinvestment, ageing infrastructure, and weak execution across the power value chain. Transmission, in particular, has remained a critical bottleneck, limiting the system’s ability to evacuate power and maintain stability.
- Investigations by Nairametrics show that several 330kV and 132kV transmission lines have been in operation for decades and are increasingly prone to faults.
- Sector insiders told Nairametrics that funding announcements often outpace execution, with projects slowed by procurement delays, right-of-way issues, and weak supervision.
- Operators say the grid frequently runs close to its maximum tolerance, leaving little room to absorb shocks when faults occur.
Delays in completing key transmission projects under the Presidential Power Initiative have further constrained grid resilience.
These structural weaknesses have compounded generation constraints, increasing the likelihood of frequency deviations, system disturbances, and large-scale outages.
What you should know
The operational challenges observed in January 2026 are already translating into real-world consequences for electricity consumers across the country. Grid instability has continued to manifest in system collapses and nationwide outages.
Nairametrics reported in January that the national grid collapsed twice, plunging the country into a nationwide blackout.
The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) attributed the earlier nationwide outage to a system-wide disturbance.
