Nigeria’s crude oil exports are projected to decline by about 14% in March, as scheduled loadings for four key grades fall to roughly 793,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The projection is based on preliminary crude loading programmes reported by Reuters.
The figures highlight renewed volatility in Nigeria’s export flows, despite ongoing efforts to stabilise output and boost foreign exchange inflows.
The projected March loadings compare with about 922,000 bpd scheduled for export in February, pointing to a notable month-on-month decline driven largely by sharp cutbacks in two major offshore grades.
What the data is saying
Preliminary loading programmes show uneven movements across Nigeria’s four major crude oil grades, with modest gains in some grades failing to offset steep declines in others. The overall picture suggests weaker export volumes heading into March.
- Qua Iboe loadings are expected to rise to about 184,000 bpd in March, compared with roughly 170,000 bpd in February.
- Bonny Light exports are also projected to increase slightly to around 282,000 bpd from about 269,000 bpd in the previous month.
- Bonga crude loadings are scheduled to fall sharply to approximately 61,000 bpd, down from about 139,000 bpd in February.
- Forcados exports are expected to decline to around 266,000 bpd, compared with roughly 344,000 bpd in February.
While Qua Iboe and Bonny Light show incremental gains, the substantial reductions in Bonga and Forcados volumes more than outweigh these increases, resulting in a lower overall export figure for March.
More insights
Nigeria’s crude oil loading schedules are often subject to significant month-to-month swings, reflecting a mix of operational, technical and market-related factors.
- In addition, long-standing security challenges and infrastructure constraints in the Niger Delta region have historically contributed to uneven production and export performance. Pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and delays in repair works have, at various times, disrupted flows from key production hubs feeding export terminals.
- Market dynamics also play a role, as refiners’ preferences shift depending on pricing, quality differentials and global supply conditions. As a result, some Nigerian grades may see stronger demand in certain months, while others experience a reduction in offtake.
The combination of these factors helps explain why gains in lighter, onshore grades such as Qua Iboe and Bonny Light are not always sufficient to compensate for declines in larger offshore streams like Bonga and Forcados.
What this means
The projected drop in March crude exports comes at a sensitive time for Nigeria, as the country seeks to maximise oil production and foreign exchange earnings amid persistent economic pressures.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s primary source of export revenue and a major contributor to government finances.
Lower export volumes, if sustained, could weigh on oil receipts and limit the fiscal benefits of any improvement in global oil prices.
This may have knock-on effects for budget implementation, external reserves and currency stability.
Cargoes may be rescheduled, added or deferred depending on operational developments and market conditions.
What you should know
Nigeria’s crude oil export programmes are typically revised multiple times before final confirmation, meaning actual March exports could differ from current projections.
- Nairametrics reported earlier that Nigeria’s crude oil exports have surged to N37.7 trillion in the first nine months of 2025.
- The data reinforces Nigeria’s continued dependence on crude oil as the backbone of its foreign exchange earnings and external trade position.
Also, Nigeria emerged as the top African exporter of crude oil to the United States in the first eight months of 2025.
