Nigeria’s current account balance is projected to strengthen further in 2026, with the surplus expected to rise to $18.81 billion, representing 11.16% of GDP.
This is according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
This projection compares with an estimated surplus of $16.94 billion, or 10.94% of GDP, in 2025.
The apex bank’s projections suggest that while external balances will benefit from stronger exports and transfers, pressures from higher imports, services payments, and investment income outflows are expected to persist.
What the report is saying
According to the CBN, Nigeria’s goods account is expected to improve on the back of stronger export receipts, which are projected to rise to $58.26 billion in 2026 from $54.59 billion in 2025.
This growth, CBN noted, is expected to be driven by higher earnings from both oil and non-oil exports.
“The growth in oil export earnings is based on the expected increase in domestic crude oil production, as security around oil installations and investments in the sector continue to improve,” the apex bank said.
On the non-oil side, exports of agricultural commodities and fertilisers are projected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s export value chain.
“The recently launched National Export Trading Company (to address persistent gaps in the export value chain) and National Intellectual Property Policy (to boost creative exports) are expected to further buoy non-oil receipts,” the apex bank added.
Despite the stronger export outlook, total imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting higher demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.
The services account deficit is also expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026, compared with $12.80 billion in 2025.
The CBN attributed this to higher payments for business and transport services, driven by increased demand for research and development services and rising freight charges linked to higher non-oil imports.
Meanwhile, the primary income account is projected to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion due to higher investment income payments to non-resident investors.
The bank noted that relatively attractive domestic yields are expected to continue attracting foreign portfolio inflows, which in turn increase interest and dividend outflows.
The secondary income account is projected to rise to a $26.13 billion surplus in 2026 from $23.82 billion in 2025, driven by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers.
Some of these inflows are also expected to support election-related activities during the period.
What this means
The improvement in Nigeria’s current account balance points to gains from oil sector reforms, export diversification, and stronger remittance inflows.
However, the outlook also highlights persistent structural challenges, including rising import dependence, widening services deficits, and growing income outflows linked to foreign investment.
What you should know
- Nairametrics reports that Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $3.42 billion in the third quarter of 2025, down 41.14% from the $5.81 billion recorded in Q2 2025.
- The surplus was also lower than the $5.78 billion posted in Q3 2024, reflecting rising external obligations despite stronger oil-sector earnings.
- Nairametrics reports that FDI inflows into Nigeria surged to $720 million in Q3 2025, up from $90 million in Q2, representing a 700% quarter-on-quarter increase.
