Nigeria ranked as Africa’s fifth-largest airline market with a total of 1.16 million scheduled passenger seats in December 2025, covering both domestic and international flights.
The capacity placed Nigeria behind Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, and Ethiopia during the period.
The data was drawn from the OAG Monthly Airline Data Updates for the African Market.
What the report is saying
OAG data indicated a 3.7% year-on-year decline in Nigeria’s total airline seat capacity, down from approximately 1.20 million seats in December 2024 to 1.16 million.
This made Nigeria the only country among Africa’s top 10 aviation markets to record a contraction during the period. Despite the decline, Nigeria maintained its fifth-place ranking, reflecting the relative size of its air travel market.
By contrast, several leading African aviation markets expanded their capacity in December 2025. Egypt, the continent’s largest market, increased its seat capacity to around 2.98 million, followed by South Africa at 2.60 million.
Morocco recorded one of the strongest expansions, growing capacity by over 13% to more than 2.03 million seats, while Ethiopia maintained steady growth at 1.38 million seats.
Other countries in the top 10, including Algeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Mauritius, also reported increases, highlighting broader growth in African aviation. Tanzania stood out, posting the fastest expansion at over 20% year-on-year.
Insights into the domestic market
The OAG Monthly Airline Data Updates for December 2025 provided insights into domestic airline capacity across Africa’s leading aviation markets.
Nigeria ranked second, with total seats falling to 850,420, down 7.5% year-on-year from 919,400 in December 2024. This was one of the steepest declines among major African domestic markets.
South Africa remained the largest domestic market, rising from 1,686,956 seats to 1,803,097 seats. Kenya grew from 420,534 seats to 456,500 seats. Tanzania expanded from 326,990 seats to 415,130 seats.
In North Africa, Egypt rose from 382,157 seats to 391,736 seats, while Algeria jumped from 308,039 seats to 388,731 seats. Morocco increased from 215,149 seats to 240,499 seats. Cape Verde recorded the fastest growth, surging from 69,493 seats to 92,924 seats.
Some markets contracted. Ethiopia fell slightly from 401,972 seats to 389,562 seats, and the Democratic Republic of Congo dropped sharply from 142,201 seats to 101,598 seats.
What you should know
Nigeria’s decline in domestic seat capacity reflects several operational and market challenges. Maintenance issues and limited MRO facilities force airlines to send planes abroad for servicing, leaving aircraft out of service for months. While MRO projects by Air Peace, Ibom Air, and others are underway, they are not yet operational, so downtime continues to affect capacity.
Other factors, such as bird strikes, high interest rates, and limited financing, also restrict aircraft availability and fleet expansion, making it harder for airlines to maintain consistent domestic operations.
Access to dry-lease aircraft remains limited. Only one airline had qualified by December 2025. Other carriers continue to rely on wet leases or costly purchases. Dry leases are critical because they give airlines full control over operations, scheduling, and costs. Nigeria’s removal from the AWG watchlist in October 2024 has started to improve access to global leasing markets.
