Nigeria’s crude oil production climbed marginally to 1.436 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up from 1.401 million bpd in October.
This is according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Thursday.
Despite the modest increase, the report shows that Nigeria fell short of meeting its OPEC-assigned quota for the fourth consecutive month, the last time it met its target being July 2025.
According to OPEC’s data, Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, representing a decline from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The figures highlight the country’s ongoing struggle to sustain production recovery despite new investments and government interventions in the upstream sector.
Global Oil Market Context
The cartel and its allies will need to produce an average of 43 million barrels a day next year to balance supply and demand, roughly in line with the amount pumped last month.
This runs counter to prevailing industry expectations for a supply excess in 2026.
Key OPEC+ nations led by Saudi Arabia acknowledged the fragile backdrop last month by agreeing to pause further output increases during the first quarter after rapidly ramping up production earlier this year.
What This Means
Nigeria’s inability to meet its OPEC quota for four consecutive months poses a challenge for its foreign exchange earnings, as oil remains the country’s largest revenue source. However, the gradual uptick in output shows signs of a slow but steady rebound that could strengthen the government’s fiscal position if sustained.
Furthermore, with the ongoing rehabilitation of refineries, the coming onstream of new private refineries like Dangote’s, and the renewed focus on upstream investment, Nigeria could be positioning itself for a stronger showing in 2026—provided it addresses security and infrastructure bottlenecks that continue to impede growth.
In essence, while November’s figures fall short of OPEC’s expectations, they represent a tentative upward trend—one that could define the trajectory of Nigeria’s oil sector recovery in the coming months.
What you should know
Latest FG’s data shows that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption dipped to an average of 52.9 million litres per day in November 2025, reflecting a notable shift in national fuel demand patterns.
This is according to the latest Fact Sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The November figure marks a decline from the 56.74 million litres per day recorded in October 2025.
