The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said the global aircraft supply chain is unlikely to return to normal before 2031 to 2034, following years of delivery shortfalls and a record-high order backlog that continues to constrain airlines worldwide.
According to IATA’s latest global outlook, aircraft deliveries began to recover in late 2025, and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, but supply will still fall short of demand for much of the decade.
The association noted that the industry is grappling with a deep structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity, driven by irreversible delivery losses over the past five years.
“The International Air Transport Association (IATA) updated its analysis of aerospace supply chain bottlenecks, noting that aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth in its just-released global outlook.
“While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines.
“The normalization of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031-2034 due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog,” the report read in part.
The order backlog has now surpassed 17,000 aircraft, equivalent to almost 12 years of current production and well above the long-standing historical norm of about 30 to 40 percent of the active fleet.
The report noted that delivery shortfalls have grown to at least 5,300 aircraft, forcing airlines to keep older airplanes in service for longer. The average fleet age has climbed to 15.1 years, including 12.8 years for passenger aircraft and nearly 20 years for cargo fleets. Despite this ageing fleet, more than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, highlighting persistent supply chain inefficiencies.
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IATA said airlines are feeling the impact across their operations, with higher leasing and maintenance costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, and slower progress on sustainability targets.
Travellers are also being affected, as the tighter balance between demand and available aircraft continues to push fares higher in many markets.
- The association explained that several factors are intensifying delays, including persistent engine shortages, longer aircraft certification timelines that now extend up to five years, and supply pressures linked to US-China trade tensions. A shortage of skilled labour in engine and component manufacturing has further slowed the pace of production recovery.
To ease these challenges, IATA recommended a series of measures such as opening up the aftermarket to enable more competition in Maintenance, Repair and Operations, improving visibility across the supplier network, expanding repair and parts capacity, and adopting more predictive maintenance tools to reduce downtime and enhance fleet availability.
