Geopolitical analysts have warned that the G20 may fracture into rival blocs as diplomatic tensions between the United States and South Africa reach their highest point in years.
The concerns follow Washington’s decision to exclude South Africa, an existing full member, from the 2026 G20 Summit, extending an invitation instead to Poland, one of its key European allies.
Relations between both countries deteriorated after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly accused South Africa of “genocide against White Afrikaners,” a claim South African President Cyril Ramaphosa dismissed during a visit to the White House in May.
The U.S. also boycotted the 2025 G20 Summit in Pretoria, the first G20 meeting ever hosted on African soil.
Following its exclusion, Pretoria said it is fully prepared to sit out the 2026 G20 gatherings and does not expect diplomatic intervention from other nations.
Analysts predict imminent G20 fragmentation
Speaking on Nairametrics’ Drinks & Mic podcast, Cheta Nwanze, CEO and Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence, said the G20’s cohesion has all but collapsed.
“The cohesiveness that the G20 used to have, I think is now gone. And the G20 is going to split into various blocs over time, aligning along geopolitics,” he said.
According to Nwanze, the world is drifting toward an “emerging West versus the rest situation,” with smaller historically non-aligned countries now being pressured to pick sides.
He expressed disappointment that the first G20 summit held in Africa produced no meaningful outcomes.
“I had hopes that, being the first G20 in Africa, we would see more concrete things for the continent. That didn’t happen. The communiqué was mal-fed… so people are going to begin to question the relevance of the G20.”
Double standards fueling global distrust
Nwanze noted that the prolonged Russia–Ukraine war and the ongoing Israel–Palestine conflict have exposed deep inconsistencies in the actions of global powers.
“We’re returning to a world where the strong do what they will and the weak support what they must. And it’s not good for business,” he said.
Also speaking on the podcast, Arnold Dublin-Green, Chief Investment Officer at Cordros Securities, said the silence of Western nations over the U.S. boycott of the first African-hosted G20 meeting was revealing.
“It is definitely the West versus BRICS,” he said, adding that the U.S. snub represents a broader geopolitical shift.
For him, the move may become a historical turning point:
“This is probably something we’ll look back on and say, okay, this is when we knew things were exacerbated.”
More insight
The G20 comprises the world’s largest economies, along with the European Union and African Union, representing 85% of global GDP and two-thirds of the world’s population.
The Trump administration has maintained a hardline stance on South Africa, previously expelling Pretoria’s ambassador and imposing 30% trade tariffs, which South Africa is still challenging.
