Crude oil prices are rising slightly early today due to a combination of supply disruption risks.
Nigeria’s major crude grades, Brass River, Bonny Light, and Qua Iboe, settled above $65 a barrel on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 0.3 percent to $59.5 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by roughly 0.2 per cent to $63.31 per barrel.
Crude oil prices posted a fourth consecutive monthly decline in November because of oversupply as production exceeds demand, the longest losing streak since 2023, following a 1.3 per cent increase for both benchmarks on Monday, which was fueled by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions.
Oil prices rose sharply on Monday, with Brent up more than 1.1% after new strikes on Russian energy infrastructure over the weekend,
Geopolitical uncertainty elevates oil supply concerns
A mooring at Russia’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Black Sea terminal was damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes, stopping Kazakh crude loadings (1 percent of the world’s supply, or about 1.6 million barrels per day).
At one point, operations partially resumed, but there is still uncertainty.
Upside potential could be limited by the possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine under Trump, which would remove sanctions on Russian oil.
The CPC terminal, which ships mostly Kazakhstani crude oil, is situated in the Novorossiysk port in Russia. Kazakhstan activated a plan to reroute exports in response to the most recent occurrence.
Due to the growth of the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, which has boosted exports, shipments from the CPC terminal have averaged approximately 1.48 million barrels per day so far this year, up about 200,000 barrels per day from the previous year.
Supply concerns for Venezuelan crude oil are rising due to market support following President Trump’s announcement that he may close the country’s airspace.
The United States is increasing its military presence in the area and launching strikes on vessels it believes are transporting drugs because of the escalation between the US and Venezuela. Venezuela exports roughly 800k barrels per day, of which most of the crude Oil will flow to China. Clearly, any further escalation puts this supply in jeopardy.
OPEC+ maintained Steady output, citing concerns about a supply glut. The cartel reiterated its intention to halt production increases in Q1 2026. Although this offered short-term support, analysts anticipate little long-term impact because global inventories are expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day this year and 4 million barrels per day in 2026. A minor increase in output for December was authorized, but now the emphasis is on a review of member capacities
The group adhered to its policy of maintaining a constant level of output during the first quarter of the following year because of “seasonality.” In general, this was anticipated.
The group will examine members’ maximum sustainable production capacity in the interim as a guide for 2027 production baselines. This could certainly lead to disagreement among members, with countries keen to secure higher baselines.
Nigeria’s fundamentals brighten in the oil industry
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is accepting bids for 50 blocks for the 2025 oil licensing round.
This comprises one deepwater block, fifteen onshore blocks, fifteen shallow water blocks, and fifteen frontier blocks. The project is anticipated to attract $10 billion in investments and add up to 2 billion barrels of reserves over the next ten years in accordance with the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), potentially increasing daily output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) once it is operational.
NUPRC CEO Gbenga Komolafe highlighted reduced exploration risks because of high-quality geophysical data to revitalize underinvested assets in the Niger Delta. This follows a successful 2024 round and supports President Bola Tinubu’s goal of adding 1 million bpd to national output.
Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.4 million bpd in October 2025 from 1.39 million bpd in September, according to OPEC’s latest report.
