The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on Monday, 24th, and Tuesday, 25th November 2025, with economists and market analysts divided on whether the Committee will cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 25–50 bps or hold at 27% to assess the impact of September’s policy actions.
At its last meeting in September, the MPC reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 27%, the first cut in 2025. The committee attributed the decision to improving macroeconomic fundamentals, including stronger output growth, exchange rate stability, an uptick in external reserves, and the significant moderation in inflation recorded in August, the lowest in five months.
With inflation continuing to decelerate, FX liquidity improving, and credit conditions still tight, the market remains evenly split on the likely direction of policy.
Below are the experts’ outlook on what to expect from the MPC meeting.
Analysts diverge ahead of the November MPC meeting
Fixed Income Trader at CFG Africa, Umar Abdulqadir, expects the Committee to implement another 50bps reduction, citing sustained improvement in macroeconomic indicators.
According to him, “We expect the MPC to lower the benchmark monetary policy rate by at least 50 basis points, supported by improving macroeconomic indicators and the need to stimulate credit expansion.”
According to him, “Disinflation has remained sustained, with headline and core inflation easing over recent months.”
He notes that improved FX liquidity and better food supply conditions have helped anchor price expectations, reducing the need for an overly tight policy stance.
He also highlights the positive S&P sovereign rating upgrade, stating that it “reinforces Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic outlook” and lowers risk premia, thereby expanding the MPC’s room to cut rates without triggering capital volatility.
Umar adds that elevated lending rates continue to suppress credit expansion, especially for SMEs and corporates.
“A moderate reduction in the policy rate would lower borrowing costs, stimulate investment, and bolster economic recovery,” he said.
Abdulqadir concludes that a minimum 50bps cut is justified to reinforce Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic stability and support growth momentum.
Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu, anticipates a more cautious easing of 25–50bps, aligning with Nigeria’s improving inflation outlook and global monetary conditions.
He notes that, “We anticipate the MPC to cut the benchmark interest rate further by 25 to 50bps. This expectation is supported by the favourable inflation trajectory—with headline inflation now at 16.05% y/y for October.”
He points out that global sentiment is also turning mildly dovish, referencing the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent 25bps rate cut: “Cautious-dovish signals from major global central banks strengthen the case for moderate easing locally.”
Furthermore, he cites Nigeria’s solid macro data, including 4.2% GDP growth in Q2 and a positive 3.6%–3.9% base case growth outlook for Q3, as justification for another 25–50bps adjustment.
He argues that these indicators collectively justify a moderate policy easing stance.
Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Jessica Ifada, on the other side of market sentiment, expects the MPC to maintain the policy rate at 27%.
According to her, “The MPC is expected to maintain the MPR at 27% at its upcoming meeting.”
She argues that the September rate cut is still filtering through the economy: “The effects on inflation, exchange rate, and bank lending take time to materialize.”
The reduction of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from 50% to 45% means banks now have more lendable funds. According to her, this liquidity support “complements the recent MPR cut and reduces the need for another adjustment so soon.”
Jessica notes that many banks have met recapitalization thresholds, boosted financial system stability, and enabled stronger credit support—another reason for a steady rate.
She adds that the November–December festive period usually triggers temporary price increases. Holding the MPR helps balance liquidity with inflation risks.
She points out that the revised corridor (+250/–250bps) already guides short-term rates toward the MPR, reducing the need for immediate policy shifts.
Jessica believes that “holding the MPR at 27% balances growth support and inflation anchoring,” making it the most prudent approach.
Nairametrics Drinks and Mics
However, on the latest episode of Drinks and Mics, Nairametrics’ flagship podcast, hosts. Arnold Dublin Green, MD of Rencap Asset Management, opined that the MPC could cut rates by as much as 200 basis points.
According to Arnold, “in my view, since the last MPR cut to 27% I’ve seen treasury bills yield decline by 140bps, bond yields also decline by 100bps, and inflation down by 100bps. I see a 25% MPR.
Nairametrics CEO, Ugodre Obi-Chukwu, also agreed with Dublin-Green, stating that he thinks “we should see a 200bps cut”.
Why the November meeting matters
The upcoming meeting is critical for assessing whether the September policy actions have effectively filtered into the broader economy. Lower inflation, a stable FX market, improved reserves, upgraded sovereign ratings, and moderate credit recovery have all created room for a potential rate cut.
Yet, elevated inflation, festive-season demand pressures, and the need to preserve the credibility of recent reforms argue for a hold.
All eyes will be on the MPC’s forward guidance as markets assess how the CBN plans to balance its dual mandate of price stability and growth support heading into the final stretch of the year.
