Nigeria’s scheduled air capacity is set to decline for the second consecutive quarter in Q4 2025, according to the IATA Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Q3 2025.
The projection places Nigeria among the few African markets expected to experience a double-digit contraction in seat capacity for the period.
In contrast, other major African markets such as Egypt and South Africa are projected to expand seat capacity by 8.6% and 11.8% year-on-year, respectively.
Tanzania is expected to lead the continent in seat capacity growth with a robust 21% increase.
The latest chartbook confirms that Nigeria’s scheduled capacity is set to fall for the second quarter in a row, continuing the trend observed in Q3 2025.
“Schedules for the next quarter are in line with what was planned for Q3 (Chart 32). For Q4 2025, Tanzania is projected to lead seat capacity growth, with a robust 21% YoY increase. The biggest markets in Africa, Egypt and South Africa, are expected to grow by 8.6% YoY and 11.8% YoY, respectively.
“Scheduled capacity in Nigeria looks set to decrease by double digits for the second consecutive quarter, while Algeria could see growth of 11.8% YoY. Tunisia and Ghana are also likely to expand in Q4 2025, following a relative stability in Q3,” the report read in part.
Global and regional air traffic trends
The data for Q3 2025, according to the IATA Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Q3 2025, showed that global passenger traffic rose 4.1% year-on-year (YoY).
International flights increased 5.8% YoY, with premium cabins up 4.9% and economy cabins 5.9%, while domestic traffic grew 1.3% YoY, accounting for 12% of the global increase. Overall, available seats rose slightly faster at 4.2% YoY, leading to a modest decline in average occupancy.
- Regionally, Asia Pacific contributed nearly half of global growth, with passenger traffic up 5.8% YoY and available seats up 4.9%, resulting in moderately fuller planes. International travel rose 8.8% YoY, with premium and economy cabins increasing 7.2% and 9.0%, respectively, while domestic markets varied: China, Japan, and Australia outperformed the global average, while India contracted 0.7% YoY.
- European carriers recorded a 3.3% YoY traffic increase, with seats up 3.6%, making planes slightly less full. International travel grew 4.4% YoY, led by economy cabins, while premium cabins fell.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 7.2% YoY traffic growth, with seats up 6.8%, and international travel expanded 7.1% YoY, supported by a 9.0% rise in premium cabins.
Latin American and Caribbean airlines grew 6.7% YoY, with capacity up 6.2%, and planes were slightly fuller, driven by international and premium travel. North America posted the weakest growth, with traffic up just 0.6% YoY; domestic flights fell 0.5%, international traffic rose 2.2%, and planes were slightly emptier, with seat capacity projected to grow marginally in Q4.
African passenger and cargo traffic trends
African airlines posted 7.2% YoY growth in total passenger traffic, with seats up 6.4% and planes generally fuller than in previous quarters. International traffic rose 6.1% YoY, with economy cabins up 6.2% and premium cabins 3.4%. Passenger flows on Africa–Asia routes increased 10.4%, while Africa–Middle East grew 14.3%.
- The Africa–Europe corridor declined 4.5% YoY despite a 3.6% rise in seats. Among major destinations, travel to Saudi Arabia rose 9.2% YoY, the UK 13.8%, and the UAE 10.1%, while France and Belgium fell 1.6%. Key country pairs saw Egypt–Saudi Arabia +5.8%, Egypt–Italy +27.7%, Morocco–UK +16.5%, France–Morocco +0.3%, and Algeria–France +4.2%.
Cargo traffic in Africa also grew significantly, with international demand up 12.5% YoY, available capacity up 6.6%, and planes carrying a larger share of their cargo. Africa–Asia and Africa–Middle East routes recorded the strongest performance, while the Africa–Europe corridor saw a decline.
