Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 2025 is set for release soon, and expectations among analysts remain mixed.
While some experts anticipate a slower but still positive growth of 3.6%–3.9%, others project a more robust expansion of about 4.5%, building on the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2 2025.
The divide reflects differing assumptions around sectoral performance, inflation pressures, oil output stability, and the pace of recovery in the non-oil economy, which contributes over 94% of total GDP.
Below are the outlook of industry professionals as they observe the economy’s trend.
What analysts are saying about Q3 2025 GDP
Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Jessica Ifada, expects GDP growth to ease slightly in the third quarter, projecting an expansion of around 3.8%–3.9%, lower than the 4.23% recorded in Q2.
She attributes the anticipated moderation to a strong base effect, persistent inflation pressures, and the continued weakness of the oil sector, which contributes only “about 4% of total GDP.”
Despite the slowdown, Ifada maintains a positive outlook, noting that “the non-oil economy, which makes up roughly 96% of GDP, should continue to drive performance through strong contributions from trade and agriculture.” She adds that telecommunications and financial services will remain stable, even though the impact of the recent interest rate cut to 27% “may not fully reflect until Q4.”
Head of Research at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu, projects GDP growth of between 3.6% and 3.9% under the firm’s base-case scenario. He explains that agriculture should expand between 2.2% and 2.7%, supported by “the positive pass-through effects of the main harvest season.”
Asimiyu expects the industrial sector to grow by 3.7%–4.1%, boosted by increased crude refining activity due to the “expansion in refined product supply from the Dangote refinery” and improved performance in food, tobacco, and beverage manufacturing, thanks to FX stability and lower funding cost pressures.
He anticipates a mild slowdown in the services sector, projecting 3.5%–3.8% growth, down from 3.94% in Q2, noting that “weak interest income and slower loan book expansion, due to the CBN’s directive for banks to exit the forbearance window, will likely drag financial-sector growth.” However, he adds that the ICT subsector “is expected to sustain momentum, supported by tariff adjustments implemented earlier in the year.”
Research and Insights Lead at Norrenberger Financial Group, Samuel Oyekanmi, offers a more optimistic forecast, projecting GDP growth of around 4.5% for Q3 2025. According to the analyst, nationwide productive activity strengthened further during the quarter, as shown by the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which averaged 52.8—up from 52.2.
He explains that the higher PMI reading “signals stronger expansion in both manufacturing and services, reflecting rising business activity across major sectors.” He adds that this momentum builds on the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2, noting that “economic activity continued to gain traction through the third quarter, supported by improved confidence and better operating conditions.”
Likely drivers of Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP outlook
- Improved agriculture output: Harvest season boosted crop supply, and price pressures eased cost constraints on farming clusters.
- Refining activity in the industrial sector: Growing refinery throughput at the Dangote facility enhanced local product availability and eased import dependence, providing a notable boost to industrial sector activity.
- Mixed signals in the services sector: Telecoms and ICT remained strong, finance and insurance saw slower growth due to lower interest income.
- Underperforming oil sector: With only about 4.2% contribution in Q2, the oil sector had minimal pull on overall GDP, supply stability remains a challenge.
- Inflation and FX stability: Ease in inflation helped consumer-facing sectors, FX stability improved import planning for manufacturers.
Nairametrics’ take
Nigeria’s Q3 2025 growth outlook is shaping up to be positive but uneven.
On one hand, strong non-oil activity (especially in agriculture, trade, ICT, and refining) continues to keep the economy on a growth trajectory. Weaker financial-sector earnings and the persistent lag from the oil sector are likely to keep momentum in check.
Overall, the quarter reflects a mix of strong and weak signals, suggesting growth held steady rather than accelerated.
Q3 data will ultimately answer two key questions:
- Is Nigeria’s post-inflation recovery broadening across sectors?
- How quickly are policy actions such as rate cuts, FX reforms, and industrial adjustments reflect in real activity?
