Nigeria witnessed a historic shift in its inflation dynamics in September 2025, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported the country’s first month-on-month food deflation in over 13 years.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, headline inflation dropped sharply to 18.02%, down from 20.12% recorded in August 2025, marking one of the steepest monthly declines in recent memory.
The major driver behind this decline was the food inflation component, which moderated to 16.87% in September, compared to 21.87% in August. Even more notable was the month-on-month food inflation rate, which printed at -1.57%, signaling an actual fall in food prices during the month. This is the first negative monthly reading since February 2012, when food inflation stood at -0.13%.
While the headline decline reflects a combination of factors, the most significant contributors include seasonal trends in food prices, statistical base effects, and the recent rebasing of the inflation basket by the NBS.
The harvest season across major agricultural regions has helped boost food supply, particularly for staples such as maize, yam, rice, and vegetables, which typically exert downward pressure on prices around this time of the year.
At the same time, the rebasing of the inflation basket, which involves updating the goods and services used to calculate inflation to better reflect current consumption patterns, has helped adjust price weightings across categories. This technical adjustment, combined with a high comparative base from the previous year, further accentuated the apparent slowdown in inflation.
Food prices cool off in September
According to Nairametrics’ Food Price Survey, the prices of several staple food items experienced notable moderation in September, providing some relief to consumers after months of persistent increases.
- For instance, the price of a big bag of pepper dropped significantly by 25%, selling for an average of N60,000 in September compared to N80,000 in the previous month. Interestingly, prices have continued to ease in October, with the same bag now averaging around N45,000.
- Similarly, the average price of a kilogram of mackerel (Titus) fish declined by 12.5%, selling for about N6,000 compared to the prior month.
- In the same trend, a 50kg bag of local rice saw a 9.7% reduction, with the average price falling to N65,000 in September. The downward trajectory persisted into October, with market surveys showing further price declines to around N57,000 per bag.
The sustained decline across key food items reflects the impact of seasonal harvest supplies and improved market availability, contributing to the overall cooling in food inflation during the period.
Despite this temporary relief, experts caution that Nigeria’s broader inflation outlook remains fragile, with the IMF projecting an annual inflation of 23%. Structural challenges such as high transport and energy costs, currency pressures, and logistical inefficiencies in food distribution continue to pose risks to sustained price stability.
However, the September data offers a glimmer of optimism, suggesting that targeted agricultural interventions and improved food supply chains could play a crucial role in moderating price pressures going forward.
In essence, Nigeria’s first recorded food deflation in over a decade provides not just statistical significance but also a moment of reflection on the country’s inflation management efforts. Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained downward trend or a temporary seasonal dip will depend on how well macroeconomic and policy conditions align in the coming months.
