Nigeria’s business landscape sustained its upward momentum in September 2025, as the Current Business Performance Index climbed to 107.9 points, marking a 0.6-point increase from 107.3 points in August.
This is according to the latest NESG–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM).
The report shows that businesses have remained in the expansion zone since December 2024, reflecting continued optimism among Nigerian firms despite ongoing structural challenges.
On a year-to-date basis, business performance between January and September 2025 is 20.0 index points higher compared to the same period in 2024 — an encouraging sign of resilience and recovery in Nigeria.
Agriculture leads the recovery
The Agriculture sector posted a remarkable turnaround in September after contracting in August. Its BCM Index rose sharply from 95.6 to 107.3 points, driven by improvements in crop production and forestry.
The rebound was underpinned by bumper harvests, favourable rainfall patterns, and government input support programmes, which boosted output and investor confidence.
Sectoral data further revealed that all five agricultural sub-sectors—crop production, forestry, livestock, fishing, and agro-allied industries—recorded gains. Crop production and forestry shifted from contraction to expansion, while other sub-sectors maintained growth, demonstrating the sector’s broad-based resilience.
Manufacturing slows but remains in expansion
The Manufacturing sector maintained its expansionary status in September, though growth moderated.
According to the report, the sector’s BCM Index fell slightly to 102.5 points, down from 106.2 in August, indicating a slowdown in production momentum.
The report attributed this decline to weaknesses in major sub-sectors, including Food, Beverage and Tobacco, Cement, Plastic and Rubber Products, Wood and Wood Products, Non-Metallic Products, and Pulp and Paper. Collectively, these industries account for over 75% of Nigeria’s manufacturing output, making their contraction particularly significant.
Manufacturers continued to struggle with unstable power supply, high diesel costs, and frequent outages, which disrupt production schedules and reduce profitability.
Firms also reported persistent issues such as multiple taxation, limited access to credit, high rental costs, raw material shortages, and insecurity, which have collectively eroded competitiveness and slowed expansion.
Services sector shows strong momentum
In contrast, the Services sector recorded a notable improvement in business performance, rising to 108.5 index points in September from 103.7 in August 2025. The uptick was driven by steady activity in financial services, ICT, and logistics, supported by moderating inflation and a relatively stable exchange rate.
The sector’s continued expansion reflects growing consumer demand, digital transformation, and increased private investment in technology and innovation. Despite economic headwinds, the services sector remains Nigeria’s largest employer and strongest contributor to GDP growth, helping to offset weaker performance in manufacturing.
Improving sentiment, persistent risks
The BCM sub-indices for investment, exports, access to credit, and prices also recorded marginal gains compared to August, suggesting a gradual improvement in capital formation and external trade sentiment. Additionally, input cost moderation points to a possible easing of inflationary pressures on firms, though the outlook remains cautious.
The report warned that while recent gains are encouraging, the positive trend remains fragile. Persistent structural challenges—such as financing constraints, erratic electricity supply, high operational costs, policy uncertainty, and insecurity—continue to undermine confidence and investment appetite across sectors.
What you should know
In September, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.23% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2025.
The report shows that Agriculture grew by 2.82% in Q2 2025 in real terms, compared with 2.60% in Q2 2024 and just 0.07% in the previous quarter.
