Latest fundamentals indicate that Nigerian crude oil (Bonny Light) is likely to surpass the $80 per barrel because of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.
Nigerian Bonny Light crude trades at $73 a barrel. Analysts also estimate that prices will increase further amid the conflict affecting oil infrastructure in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices are expected to rise to at least $80 per barrel, possibly higher. As a result, Nigerian crude oil becomes a more attractive alternative, as it avoids the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz.
Bonny Light is a “sweet” (low sulfur) crude, making it easier and cheaper to process gasoline and jet fuel, especially during times of global volatility.
 Isreal/U.S attack Iran
Israel raised concerns about a potential wider conflict in the oil-rich region on Saturday when it announced that it had launched “preventive” airstrikes on targets in Iran. According to Fars News, multiple missiles likely struck Tehran, with three large explosions heard in the city center.
Iranian state television reported seeing thick smoke rising from parts of the capital. One of the strikes reportedly took place near the residence of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, according to the Associated Press.
A delegate said that OPEC+ will consider the possibility of a larger supply increase when key members meet on Sunday, following Israel’s strikes on targets in Iran. Several delegates previously stated that after a three-month supply freeze, the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia was expected to begin modest production increases in April.
Reports from Iranian media mention attacks in Isfahan, where Iran is believed to store its highly enriched uranium. IAEA inspectors reported seeing a regular act on Friday.
- Â President Donald Trump said that his military operations inside Iran could result in American casualties, stating, “The Iranian government wants to murder people. We may suffer casualties and lose the lives of brave American heroes, as is frequently the case in war, but we are not doing this for the time being. The president stated, “It is a noble mission, and we are doing this for the future.” “Every effort has been made to reduce the risk of US personnel in the area,” he added.
- Â Trump explained that his “massive and ongoing” military campaign aims to prevent Iran from threatening American lives. “To stop this very evil, radical dictatorship from endangering America and our fundamental national security interests, the U.S. military is conducting a massive and continuous operation,” he said in a video message. “We intend to demolish their missiles and destroy their missile industry.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a state of emergency and warned that drone and missile attacks are likely soon. The Israel Defense Forces reported sirens sounded across the country, civilian flights were halted, and residents were advised to stay near shelters. The military also issued guidelines restricting non-essential activities such as social gatherings and education.
Nigerian oil industry gathers momentum
The Dangote Refinery, with a capacity of over 650,000 bpd in 2026, has created a new paradigm.
Nigeria is now refining a larger share of its crude and aims to become self-sufficient in fuel rather than exporting all its crude and importing fuel.
- The refinery is also the first in the world to reach this production level using a single train. During a recent NNPCL site visit, the refinery was seen at 661,000 bpd, even higher than its designed capacity.
- The refinery has made Nigeria self-sufficient in Premium Motor Spirit (PMS/Petrol).
- The Federal Government’s 2026 budget is based on a conservative crude price of $64.85 per barrel, with an ambitious daily production target of 1.84 million barrels.
Production in January 2025 was around 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), just below the OPEC+ target of 1.5 million bpd.
Nigeria launched the Cawthorne (API 36.4°) crude grade in February 2026, alongside new grades introduced in 2024 and 2025, Utapate and Obodo, respectively.
