Citigroup analysts have forecast that Brent Crude oil could fall to $60 per barrel by year-end, averaging about $62 per barrel between the second and fourth quarters of 2026.
They cited the planned OPEC+ production increase and China’s stockpiling as key reasons for their projection.
The bank revised its global liquids balance outlook after OPEC+ announced plans to roll back an additional 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of voluntary cuts starting in October 2025.
According to Citi, this could lead to stock builds of 1.1 mb/d in 2025 and 2.1 mb/d in 2026, adding to an already loosening global supply.
By the end of 2026, Citi estimates that global liquids inventories will rise to 10.9 billion barrels, equivalent to 103 days of forward demand cover.
Brent Crude has already declined by more than 10% in the commodities market, hovering around $66 per barrel as of September 19, 2025.
Market trend
Crude oil opened the year at $74.93 per barrel, climbing to $82.03 on January 15, the highest level so far in 2025, before turning downward.
From February through early March, tariffs weighed on prices, dragging them below $71 per barrel. A short-lived rebound in late March into early April lifted oil back to $74, but by the end of April it had slumped again, closing at a low of $63.12.
Prices regained momentum in May and held relatively firm through June, supported by geopolitical tensions and fears of potential supply disruptions from Iran. This upward move stretched into July, with Brent reaching $72.
In early August, however, forecasts that supply would likely outpace demand fueled a sharp selloff, sending prices down more than 7%. The commodity ended August in the red at $67 per barrel, and September has already been bearish.
Most recently, on Friday, September 19, 2025, oil prices slipped again as demand concerns outweighed expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of the year would stimulate consumption.
Reaction
Oil prices began a fresh decline after the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting, as concerns over weakening demand outweighed expectations.
The Fed lowered its policy rate by a quarter percentage point and signaled more cuts ahead, aiming to support growth in the face of a cooling labor market.
- Because rate cuts typically occur when the economy is slowing, they raised concerns that businesses and households could reduce fuel consumption, thereby lowering expectations for oil demand.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell last week, reversing the previous week’s spike, but the broader labor market continues to soften as both demand for and supply of workers ease.
