Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase global cross-border trade by nearly 40% by 2040, but only if the right policies are in place to bridge the digital divide.
This is according to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 2025 World Trade Report.
The flagship study highlights how AI adoption can slash trade costs, boost productivity, and expand GDP, but warns that uneven access could widen inequality between economies.
The WTO projects global trade could expand by 34–37%, while global GDP could grow by 12–13% by 2040, if AI is widely adopted.
This growth will rely on access to AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors, raw materials, and digital infrastructure, which together accounted for $2.3 trillion in global trade in 2023.
Closing the digital divide
Commenting on the report, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed that while AI offers enormous opportunities, access remains highly uneven across economies.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she said.
- The report highlights that if low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies by 50% and adopt AI more widely, they could see incomes grow by 15% and 14% respectively.
- This underscores the need for policies that bridge the digital divide, expand workforce skills, and foster inclusive access to AI.
- The WTO also flagged growing trade restrictions on AI-related goods. Quantitative restrictions have surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, largely imposed by high- and upper-middle-income economies.
In some low-income countries, bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods remain as high as 45%, limiting access and competitiveness.
Policy frameworks for inclusive AI growth
Beyond infrastructure, the report stresses that investments in education, training, and labor market policies are essential to avoid widening inequality.
It also calls for open and predictable trade policies, along with expanded commitments under existing WTO agreements such as the Information Technology Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade in Services to make AI more affordable and accessible.
The WTO said it will continue to provide a platform for member countries to deliberate on AI and trade, noting that more than 80 trade concerns related to AI have already been raised at the organization. Dedicated discussions are also underway through the WTO Work Programme on E-Commerce.
What it means for Nigeria
For Nigeria, these projections point to both an opportunity and a challenge, especially with the current gaps in digital infrastructure, skilled workforce development, and AI adoption policies.
Earlier this year, the Nigerian government launched its National AI Strategy to accelerate AI development, productivity, and economic growth across sectors.
However, industry analysts have argued that the Strategy would amount to nothing if the current infrastructure deficiencies in the country are not addressed.
