Nigerian crude remained mostly stable but below the $70 mark as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on key Russian refineries and export terminals, which could disrupt crude and fuel shipments.
Nigerian oil blends, Bonny Light and Brass River, were last quoted below $68 per barrel.
Brent crude futures increased to $67.3 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $62.8 per barrel.
Ukraine’s assault on Russian facilities boosts oil
The major benchmarks gained more than 1% in the previous week following Kyiv’s heightened targeting of Russian oil infrastructure. Facilities such as Russia’s largest oil export hub, the Primorsk terminal, which can load about a million barrels a day, and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the country’s two biggest refineries processing around 355,000 barrels daily—or 63.4% of Russia’s refining capacity were among those targeted.
Ukrainian drone command confirmed successful strikes on these locations. A Russian oil company in Bashkortostan announced it would maintain its current production levels despite recent damage from a drone attack.
US President Donald Trump reiterated his intention to impose sanctions on Russia unless Europe takes coordinated action to reduce Moscow’s oil imports. Russia supplies oil to Europe.
Trump stated, “I don’t want them to buy oil,” urging European nations to respond collectively. These remarks come amid ongoing tensions that continue to influence global commodity markets.
Oil Theft in Nigeria Near a Two-decade Low
Nigeria’s oil losses have fallen to a 16-year low as industry and government initiatives to address metering and oil theft continue to pay off. To combat oil losses, President Bola Tinubu’s administration in Abuja has used a two-pronged strategy since 2023.
The Nigerian military closed”systemic loopholes” to improve the accuracy of metered oil production and exports while collaborating with security agencies, operators, and communities to combat bunkering and illegal refining. The Federal government has also authorized 37 additional routes for the evacuation of crude oil to prevent oil theft.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), crude oil losses for the seven months ending in July averaged 9600 barrels per day, the lowest amount since 2009, when it was 8500 barrels per day, an all-time low. Total losses for 2024 were 4.1 million barrels. NUPRC celebrated this “dramatic turnaround,” saying, “This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry”.
According to the NUPRC, Nigeria also implemented stronger regulations in recent asset transfers and obtained more than $400 million in decommissioning liabilities in 2024. Shell PLC was one of several multinational energy majors that recently divested from Nigeria.
Shell announced on March 13 that the sale of its Niger Delta subsidiary, where it had regularly reported oil theft and sabotage, was complete. In an April 29, 2024, statement, the NUPRC said that it had delayed the $1.33 billion divestment of Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria to evaluate environmental liabilities.
NUPRC chief executive Gbenga Komolafe was quoted in a press release issued on September 9, 2025, as stating that over $400 million in “pre-sale decommissioning and abandonment liabilities have been secured through Letters of Credit and escrow accounts” throughout the Nigerian upstream sector last year.
Oil Traders Watch for More Macroeconomic Data
Meanwhile, oil traders watch the ongoing trade talks between the United States and China in Madrid, which began on Sunday. The US has called on allies to impose tariffs on Chinese imports due in part to Beijing’s purchases of Russian crude oil.
The negotiations seek to resolve a wide range of trade disputes, including those involving TikTok access and tariff levels, to lower rising trade tensions.
Recent US economic data indicating lower job creation and higher inflation have increased market uncertainty and raised concerns about the sustainability of fuel demand growth in the world’s largest oil-consuming nation.
As economists predict additional rate cuts later in the year to support a slowing labor market while balancing inflation risks, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter point during its September 16–17 meeting, the first cut of 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already hinted at a possible easing of monetary policy in the world’s largest economy.
