Cocoa prices experienced a significant increase over the past week due to weather concerns in West Africa.
The cash crop bounced from its 52-week low last week at the New York Exchange to settle at $7420 per ton.
Cocoa traded at a record high in December 2024 when it spiked to $12,646 per ton.
Excessive rainfall has hindered farmers in the Ivory Coast from cultivating cocoa and reduced the flow of cocoa from plantations to ports.
Additionally, the lack of rainfall in Ghana and Nigeria has caused cocoa pods to wither, damaging some crops.
Concerns over slow plant growth in the Ivory Coast and the spread of black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria, caused by cold and dry weather in West Africa’s cocoa regions, led to cocoa prices reaching two-month highs last month.
The past 60 days have been the driest since 1979 for cocoa from West Africa, according to the Commodity Weather Group. Before the main crop harvest, which begins in October, the lack of rain may affect the retention of cocoa pods on trees. Worries about the quality of the mid-crop cocoa grown in the Ivory Coast, harvested through September, supported the cash crop’s prices.
Rabobank states that late rains in the region, which hindered crop growth, are partly responsible for the low quality of the mid-crop in the Ivory Coast. Typically starting in April, the mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests.
Tighter cocoa inventories are also supporting prices as ICE-monitored cocoa stocks held in U.S. ports fell to a four-month low of 2,115,411 bags on Wednesday. The slowdown in the Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports is also a positive sign for prices.
Cocoa prices have come under pressure amid concerns that high tariffs and prices might reduce demand for chocolate.
Lindt and Sprüngli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year in July because of an unexpected drop in first-half chocolate sales. Additionally, citing consistently high cocoa prices, Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance in July for the second time in three months, expecting a decline in full-year sales volume.
The average Ivory Coast mid-crop estimate for this year is 400,000 MT, which is 9% less than the 440,000 estimate from the previous year. Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer in the world, produces less cocoa, which is another factor that supports cocoa.
Nigeria’s Cocoa industry sees increased exports and importation
According to the Nigerian Cocoa Association, the country’s cocoa production in 2025–2026 will drop -11 percent year over year to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT in 2024–2025. Nigeria’s June cocoa exports increased +0.9% year over year to 14,597 MT.
- Nigeria achieved a significant milestone in its cocoa exports. The nation produced N1.23 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, a 220 percent increase over the N384 billion generated during the same period in 2024, according to a report by Norrenberger.
- Nigeria’s imports of cocoa also increased. After the 2024–2025 season ended in July, Nigeria became the largest African importer of Cameroonian cocoa. The National Cocoa and Coffee Board (ONCC) reports that the country imported 2,100 metric tons of cocoa beans, 1. 09% of Cameroon’s total national exports.
According to the ONCC’s 2024–2025 campaign review report, “Nigeria has significantly increased the volumes of Cameroonian-origin beans imported.” Africa only accounts for 1.13 percent of global shipments of Cameroonian cocoa, making it a marginal destination. Europe accounted for 79 percent of exports, with Asia coming in second at 18 percent. The recent rise in
Nigeria’s official imports indicate a move toward controlled trade, easing long-standing concerns about illegal flows that have hindered Cameroon’s cocoa industry for years. The Nigerian government has pledged to revitalize the nation’s cocoa sector and the entire agricultural value chain.
- Vice President Kashim Shettima told a delegation from the World Cocoa Foundation that Nigeria is dedicated to transforming from a cocoa producer into a global cocoa processor. He noted that the establishment of a National Cocoa Management Board (NCMB) to support the sector’s resurgence has been approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC).
- He stated that the government is committed to adding value through processing by supporting sustainable cocoa farming and forest preservation. “We have to act as we speak. Nigeria used to be one of the world’s top producers of cocoa, but oil changed our priorities. We can bring that glory back.”
- According to Shettima, the president is committed to reviving cocoa and all agricultural value chains across Nigeria.
He added that global cocoa prices have skyrocketed, presenting Nigeria with an opportunity to reposition the sector through the Renewed Hope Agenda. He emphasized that Nigeria must start processing cocoa instead of just exporting raw beans.
The ICCO predicted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024- 2025 on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. Additionally, ICCO forecasted that global cocoa production would increase by + 7. 8% year over year to 4.84 MMT in 2024–2025.
