Global coffee prices, tracked by coffee futures contracts, staged an impressive recovery in the third quarter, rising more than 30% after a steep decline in May and June, which wiped out over 20% of their value.
The contracts, which opened the quarter at $3.01 per pound, have rallied strongly, climbing to highs above $3.90 per pound, reflecting demand pressures in the market.
So far in 2025, the broader trend has remained bullish, with coffee futures starting the year at $3.22 per pound, rising 18.64% to close the first quarter at $3.82 per pound before slipping in May.
By late June, prices were barely above the $3.00 per pound threshold, closing the second quarter at $3.02 per pound before a rebound surfaced in August.
Analysts attributed the August rebound largely to U.S. trade policy.
- On August 6, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, disrupting shipments to the world’s largest consumer market.
Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira noted that panic over whether supply could meet demand sent coffee futures sharply higher, with the momentum spilling into early September.
The concern now is how these global shocks will affect coffee-importing economies like Nigeria, especially considering a similar effect in 2024.
A 2024 effect
Global coffee prices surged 70.53% year-to-date in 2024, spiking from $1.89 per pound to $3.22 per pound by year-end.
Investigations by Nairametrics in September traced the surge to drought in Brazil, which triggered widespread supply disruptions.
Nigeria felt the impact as coffee prices doubled, with popular brands like Nescafé and Top Café recording steep hikes.
- For example, “Nescafé 3-in-1” rose to N34,000 per carton in August, up from N28,000 in May, and a sharp jump from N18,000 in 2023.
The rainfall shortage in Brazil, the world’s largest producer of Arabica coffee, began in April 2024 and led to a steep drop in production.
Now, with Trump’s tariffs driving a fresh surge of over 30% in the third quarter, Nigeria could once again feel the impact of global price hikes.
Arabica trend in 2025
Coffee Arabica opened 2025 strongly, starting at $3.26 per pound and gaining over 17% by the end of January, finishing the first quarter with modest overall gains.
A strong bearish momentum began in May, shaving over 20% off prices by June and continuing into July, with the contract at $2.97 per pound, significantly lower than other coffee contract types.
With Trump’s tariffs in August, Arabica rebounded sharply, gaining over 32% and now up more than 1% in September.
Analysts expect to see a break above the daily resistance of $4.30 per pound, printed in February, as a signal for further upside.
