Analysts at CardinalStone have forecast that MTN Nigeria Communications Plc is likely to resume dividend payments in the 2025 financial year, supported by improving operations and strong earnings recovery.
In a research report titled “Positive outlook affirmed for telco bellwether” published on August 5, 2025, the firm noted that MTN, which last paid a dividend in 2023, may soon be able to reward shareholders again.
The report noted that MTN’s strong Q2 2025 performance significantly improved its balance sheet, with negative equity shrinking from N458 billion at the end of 2024 to just N42.51 billion by mid-2025.
Hence, CardinalStone expects MTN’s equity to turn positive in the third quarter of 2025, clearing a major hurdle for the resumption of dividend payments.
One of the key drivers behind this recovery has been a surge in data revenue.
- In the second quarter of 2025, data sales rose by 85.6% year-on-year to N701 billion, up from N377 billion in the same period last year.
Backed by stronger margins and steady top-line growth, CardinalStone recommends a “Hold” rating on MTN’s stock, which is currently trading near its reference price of N480. The firm set a target price of N526.94 for the 2025 financial year.
Other factors
According to the analysts, MTN Nigeria’s latest earnings report paints a picture of strong operational momentum and aggressive investment in future growth.
MTN Nigeria delivered an EBITDA margin of 53.7% in Q2 2025, bringing its H1 margin to 50.5%, well above the earlier full-year forecast of 44.5%, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
- Management attributed the strong performance to a more stable exchange rate and savings from renegotiated tower lease agreements.
These positive trends are expected to continue in the second half of the year.
- Reflecting this, the analysts raised their full-year EBITDA margin forecast to 51.7%, with a projected five-year average of 53.7%.
Furthermore, MTN ramped up capital investment following recent tariff increases. In H1 2025, CAPEX surged by 288.4% year-on-year to N565.67 billion, pushing CAPEX intensity to 23.8%.
- This sharp rise reflects MTN’s decision to carry out a large portion of its infrastructure spending early in the year.
However, CAPEX intensity is expected to ease to about 17.5% for the rest of the year, staying within a target range of 16.0% to 19.0%.
Looking further ahead, MTN plans to spend an average of N1.34 trillion annually on CAPEX over the next five years, an investment expected to drive strong revenue growth of 26.8% per year.
With these strong fundamentals, CardinalStone has set a target price of N526.94 for the stock by year-end, based on a blend of valuation measures.
Market trend
MTN is currently riding a strong long-term uptrend on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, gaining intense momentum in 2025 after a tough year in 2024.
After peaking at N281 in January 2024, the stock began a steady decline in February, slipping all the way through November and ending the year down by 24% at N200.
But 2025 has told a different story.
- MTN shares opened the year at N200, continuing a recovery that had started in December. By the end of January, the stock had already rebounded to N250.
- While bullish momentum slowed slightly through the rest of Q1, the company still closed the quarter with a solid 22.5% gain.
- The real breakout, however, intensified in late Q2—driven largely by strong rallies in June. However, July was even better with a performance of 32%.
So far in 2025, MTN has delivered a year-to-date return of 140%, with a trading volume of 568 million shares. The stock is currently priced at N480.
