Analysts at Cordros Securities have raised their target price on MTN Nigeria Communications Plc from N588.74 to N616.07 per share, reflecting a 4.6% upside.
In a newly released equity report, Cordros explained that the upgrade follows MTN Nigeria’s strong nine-month performance, supported by robust data demand.
According to the report, the company recorded 57.5% revenue growth, a 15.1 percentage-point year-on-year expansion in EBITDA margin to 51.4%, and delivered Earnings Per Share of N35.77.
Reaffirming their BUY recommendation, the analysts said:
“Following our review, we raise our year-end target price by 4.6% to N616.07, implying a 29.7% upside from the current price of N475.00 (as of Nov 18).”
They also highlighted MTN Nigeria’s interim dividend of N5.00 per share, which translates to a 3.3% yield.
With this payout in view, Cordros now estimates a total 2025 dividend per share of N15.50.
Projections
According to the report, Cordros expects MTN Nigeria’s 2025 performance to improve due to better operating efficiency and a more stable economic environment.
The firm projects that net finance costs, the amount spent on debt after offsetting interest income, will decline by 70.7% year-on-year to N389.84 billion, mainly because finance income is expected to increase.
- Data revenue is still expected to lead growth, with Cordros forecasting a 71.2% year-on-year rise.
- Voice revenue is projected to grow by 52.5% year-on-year.
Cordros has adjusted its estimate for MTN’s operating profitability, placing the EBITDA margin at 51.6%.
The firm also expects customer spending to rise more moderately.
- Average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to grow 45.0% year-on-year to N5,053.55, while the subscriber base is expected to expand by 7.1% to 86.61 million.
A net foreign-exchange gain of N84.53 billion is anticipated, reversing last year’s losses.
Overall, Cordros forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of N53.31 for the full year 2025, compared with a loss of N19.10 per share in 2024.
9-month performance
MTN Nigeria reported a pre-tax profit of N1.12 trillion for the nine months ended 30 September 2025, bouncing back from a N713.6 billion loss in the same period last year.
In Q3 2025 alone, the company posted a pre-tax profit of N504.2 billion, up sharply from N37.7 billion in Q3 2024.
Revenue for the period reached N3.73 trillion, supported by growth across almost all service lines:
- Data services led with N1.97 trillion, a 73% year-on-year increase, making up over half of total revenue.
- Voice services grew 48% to N1.19 trillion from N803.95 billion, while other services accounted for the remainder.
